When the market finds a catalyst: BTC lost nearly $4 overnight

The cryptocurrency market is in a state of uncertainty. After recovering to around $79,000, Bitcoin has retreated again, losing nearly $4 in value during volatile overnight trading. The CoinDesk 20 Index remains almost unchanged, while Ethereum dropped 9.38% over the past 24 hours, reflecting overall investor disappointment in the lack of clear development directions.

“Price compression continues. Volatility is present, but confidence in the direction is lacking. This is a market craving stimulus,” — characterized the current situation BRN analyst. According to the Fear and Greed Index, market sentiment remains nervous, although signs of growing anxiety among participants are evident.

What catalysts could move the market

A series of potential triggers are scheduled for the week. Inflation data in Canada, US employment reports, and Federal Reserve officials’ speeches will shape expectations regarding the pace of rate cuts. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan is expected to raise rates by 25 basis points, adding pressure to global markets.

“Positive macroeconomic surprises could activate the narrative of a soft landing and support the recovery of risk assets. However, weaker data could open the door to new stimulus measures,” — note analysts. For the crypto market, sensitivity to macroeconomic signals remains critically high.

Technical signs give mixed signals

Liquidations continued the trend. Nearly $300 million in margin positions were liquidated in the last 24 hours, mostly longs. This typically supports short-term price recovery, but bears find reasons for optimism in other indicators.

The Treasury Volatility Index (MOVE), at around 4 dollar-points per hour, signals the possibility of renewed turbulence in bond markets. Technical analysis of Nasdaq indicates the end of its recovery since November, while the BTC options market continues to favor protective positions (puts) across multiple timeframes. This combination of factors increases the risk of a pullback toward November lows.

Bitcoin hash rate reflects mining farm closures

Network hash rate decreased by 8% to 1.2 EH/s, linked to the shutdown of major mining operations in Xinjiang, according to Nano Labs founder. This is a temporary factor, but it highlights the network’s vulnerability to concentration of mining capacity in specific regions.

The SEC issued new guidelines on custodial asset storage, emphasizing the importance of assessing reuse practices and mixing of client funds. The document aims to enhance investor protection when choosing custodians for digital assets.

Crypto company stock markets under pressure

Crypto-related companies faced significant selling pressure. Coinbase Global closed down 0.58%, Galaxy Digital lost 10.42%, and Core Scientific fell 5%. Funds investing in mining operations, such as WGMI, lost 7.77% of their value, reflecting negative investor sentiment toward the sector.

ETF flows: a mixed picture

Spot BTC ETFs saw $49.1 million in net inflows over the day, with total inflows reaching $57.89 billion. The amount of BTC held by ETFs is approximately 1.31 million coins. The situation with ETH is different: spot funds lost $19.4 million, while total inflows remain at $13.11 billion, with about 6.32 million ETH held by ETF investors.

Events this week demand close attention

On February 15, the Aster testnet AMA is scheduled, trading at around $0.56. Conflux will hold a session on X Spaces dedicated to AI agents in Web3. Streamr DAO is conducting a vote to incentivize leadership through grants tied to reaching certain DATA price levels between $0.05 and $1.

Connex will unlock 1.61% of its circulating supply worth approximately $22 million, and Starknet will unlock 5.07%, valued at about $14 million.

Global context: gold and currencies

Against the backdrop of rate expectations, gold continued its upward trend. Gold futures rose 1.16% and are trading around $4,378, while silver increased 2.78% to $63.73. The dollar index remains nearly unchanged at 98.32, though some analysts believe its downside potential is limited.

Asian indices closed with mixed results: Nikkei 225 down 1.31%, Hang Seng down 1.34%, while European indices showed positive dynamics. FTSE increased 0.83%, Euro Stoxx 50 — 0.6%.

Strategic conclusions for investors

The crypto market remains in a wait-and-see mode until macroeconomic catalysts determine its direction. Bitcoin’s nearly $4 loss overnight underscores current instability. Investors should closely monitor inflation data and Fed statements next week, as they could either support a recovery or trigger a new pullback.

ETF markets show that institutional interest in BTC persists despite short-term volatility. However, declining interest in ETH and mining shutdowns indicate a period of consolidation and sector reevaluation. Until economic indicators provide clarity, the crypto market will remain sensitive to every macroeconomic signal, and a $4 loss could quickly turn into a $400 loss or find support for recovery — all depends on catalysts that are critically missing from the market right now.