S&P predicts market explosion: Euro stablecoin may see 1,600x growth in the next five years, how should investors position themselves?

Standard & Poor’s Global Ratings made a startling prediction in its latest report: by 2030, the market size of euro stablecoins could surge from approximately €650 million (about $767 million) at the end of 2025 to €1.1 trillion (about $1.3 trillion). This implies that within just five years, the market could grow by approximately 1,600 times.

Market Outlook: From Marginal to Mainstream, the Astonishing Growth Curve of Euro Stablecoins

S&P’s forecast paints two potential scenarios for the euro stablecoin market: a baseline scenario and an upper-bound scenario.

In the baseline scenario, S&P expects the euro stablecoin market to reach €570 billion (about $672 billion) by 2030, accounting for 2.2% of the total bank deposits in the Eurozone. The primary driver of this growth is anticipated to be tokenized investments in real-world assets, which are expected to contribute around €500 billion (about $590 billion), while tokenized payments are projected to contribute approximately €100 billion (about $118 billion).

In the upper-bound scenario, the market size could reach €1.1 trillion (about $1.3 trillion), equivalent to 4.2% of Eurozone bank overnight deposits. The report notes that this enormous growth potential mainly stems from the application of stablecoins in real-world contexts, rather than being limited to crypto asset trading.

Growth Drivers: Tokenization of Real-World Assets and Regulatory Clarity

The two core factors driving this anticipated growth are the tokenization of real-world assets and the implementation of the EU’s MiCA regulatory framework.

S&P analysts emphasize in the report that, compared to the current primary use of stablecoins for crypto asset trading, their application in real-world assets is key to supporting this rapid growth multiple. Asset tokenization is becoming one of the main avenues for institutional investors to enter the digital asset space.

The MiCA regulation came into effect on January 1, 2025, providing issuers with a clear regulatory framework. The regulation sets strict rules for reserve asset eligibility, segregation, and redemption, while also imposing standardized disclosure and prudential requirements on issuers. Although the framework is operational, S&P notes that the European Banking Authority is still finalizing several key technical details. A comprehensive review plan for MiCA is scheduled to be completed by June 2027.

Bank Entry: Collective Action by European Financial Institutions

Facing enormous market potential, European banks have begun active deployment. An alliance of 11 banks from 9 countries plans to jointly issue a euro stablecoin through Qivalis, based in the Netherlands, in the second half of 2026. This alliance’s network covers approximately 150 million customers. Participating banks include well-known financial institutions such as UniCredit, ING, SEB, Banca Sella, KBC, Danske Bank, Dekabank, CaixaBank, and Raiffeisen.

Floris Lugt, head of digital assets at ING, stated that this stablecoin will provide efficient, programmable peer-to-peer payment solutions for global users. “They can enable 24/7, real-time or near-instant settlement worldwide, which is a huge advantage for international payments,” Lugt explained. “They are lower cost and more transparent.”

Global Comparison: Gaps and Opportunities Between Euro and US Dollar Stablecoins

Compared to the US dollar stablecoin market, the euro stablecoin market is currently very small. By the end of 2025, the total value of US dollar stablecoins reached $310 billion, while the market size of euro stablecoins was only about €500 million (approximately $587 million).

Euro stablecoins currently account for about 0.2% of the global stablecoin market. S&P estimates that by 2030, tokenized real-world assets in the US could account for 1.2% of total real-world assets. The agency extrapolates this indicator to the €28 trillion eurozone real-world asset market, forming its baseline digital settlement forecast. This huge gap also signifies enormous growth potential.

Market Performance: Mainstream Crypto Market Dynamics and the Stability of Euro Stablecoins

In the volatile cryptocurrency market, stablecoins play a key role due to their price stability. According to Gate data, as of February 4, 2026, Bitcoin (BTC) was priced at $76,030.1, with a 24-hour trading volume of $1.58 billion, and a market cap of $1.56 trillion. Ethereum (ETH) was priced at $2,257.28, with a market cap of $353.69 billion.

Compared to these more volatile crypto assets, euro stablecoins aim to maintain a 1:1 peg with the euro. For example, Gate data shows that Euro Tether (EURT) is currently priced around $1.13, with a historical high of $1.31. Another euro stablecoin, EUROe Stablecoin (EUROE), is currently around $1.14, with a historical high of $1.18.

“We believe that, compared to the current use of stablecoins for crypto asset trading, their application in real-world assets supports this very high growth multiple,” wrote S&P analysts in the report. When Europe’s 11 major banks announced their joint issuance of euro stablecoins, crypto analyst Nicolas Parkin pointed out: “Bank-issued stablecoins may carry lower risk and gain more retail adoption.” As regulatory frameworks mature and institutional adoption accelerates, stablecoins are shifting from speculative assets to foundational tools for global finance.