Musk's Latest Interview: Optimus 3 to Enter Production This Summer, AI Has Self-Improved, Economy May Grow 10-Fold in 10 Years

Written by: Long Yue

Source: Wall Street Insights

On March 11th, local time, during a public discussion at the “Abundance Summit” technology conference, Tesla and xAI founder Elon Musk discussed AI advancements, the mass production pace of Optimus 3, and the post-“singularity” economic landscape.

In the interview, he made several clear judgments: AI has entered a self-improvement phase, humanoid robots are about to enter large-scale production, and the economy after the “singularity” is hard to predict, but he bets on deflation and that “money will no longer be important.”

When asked about the timeline for data center construction related to SpaceX, Musk declined to elaborate, citing “SpaceX is in a quiet period.”

“Optimus 3” is about to enter production: mass production possible next year

Regarding humanoid robots, Musk revealed that Tesla’s “Optimus 3” is nearing completion.

He said: “We are finishing the final stage of Optimus 3, which is likely the most advanced robot in the world right now; other products haven’t come close to its level.”

According to him, Tesla plans to:

• Start production this summer
• Have low initial output
• Potentially reach high-volume production next year

Musk emphasized that robot manufacturing follows the common S-curve pattern in industry: slow start, then rapid expansion.

He said: “Manufacturing output usually follows an S-curve—slow at first, then climbs rapidly.”

Meanwhile, Tesla is designing a new robot manufacturing plant. He disclosed that the design differs significantly from traditional factories, with the goal of continuously updating robot versions, “possibly releasing new robot designs every year.”

AI has entered “recursive self-improvement”: training AI with AI, reducing human involvement

On the pace of AI development, Musk’s assessment is equally aggressive.

When asked if AI has entered the “recursive self-improvement” stage, he replied: “Actually, this has been happening for some time.”

He explained that current large models have formed a cycle:

• New models are trained with the help of previous generations
• Humans still supervise
• But their involvement is decreasing

He said: “Humans’ role in the loop is diminishing. Each generation helps build the next.”

He predicts this process could soon reach higher levels of automation: “Fully automated self-improvement could happen by the end of this year, or at the latest, next year.”

In his view, breakthroughs in AI are accelerating: “Right now, I see an AI breakthrough before bed, and when I wake up, there’s another.”

Post-“singularity” AI: unpredictable, but he bets on deflation, universal income, and that “money will no longer matter”

Regarding whether institutions can keep pace with AI and robotics impacts, Musk used the “singularity” as a metaphor: “The singularity is called a singularity because it’s very hard to predict what will happen.”

He mentioned Grok’s symbol as “a halo around a black hole,” and said, “What happens inside the singularity is hard to know, but it will be very interesting.”

On macro outlook, he provided a clear optimistic premise: he believes the future “has a range of possible outcomes, not all good,” but “most likely very good,” with a probability “possibly 80% or higher.”

Without extreme external shocks, he said he feels “quite comfortable” about economic growth: “Without a third world war… I think a tenfold increase in economic scale within 10 years is a fairly conservative forecast.”

He directly attributes inflation/deflation logic to supply explosion: “We will have universal income—basically, giving money to people.” The reason is that “production of goods and services will far exceed the money supply,” leading to deflation: “Deflation is the ratio of output to money supply… if goods and services grow faster than money supply, you get deflation.”

Looking further ahead, he believes the importance of money will decline: “Money will become irrelevant at some point in the future.”

He even proposes a “non-human economy” valuation: “I think future AI won’t use human currencies; it will only care about energy and quality—wattage and tonnage.”

Employment and “robots building robots”: no layoffs, but expansion, with individual productivity “absurdly high”

Regarding when “robots can participate massively in manufacturing and replace humans,” Musk emphasizes the current reality: Tesla has about 150,000 employees, with “roughly two-thirds working in factories in some form”; its supply chain workforce “may be 1 to 2 million people.”

But he believes efficiency will leap dramatically: “We don’t plan to lay off or reduce staff. On the contrary, we will increase the workforce.” The real change is in productivity per person: “Tesla’s output per person will become insanely high.”

This aligns with his description of technological progress: whether AI or manufacturing, “it’s often an S-curve or a series of overlapping S-curves: slow start, exponential growth, reaching a plateau, then another breakthrough initiating the next.”

Full interview translation:

Host Peter H. Diamandis: Audience, as you see, I’m still working to turn “hope” into reality.

Musk: You look great.

Diamandis: I feel very good.

Musk: Did you use some anti-aging serum or something?

Diamandis: That’s our “longevity express,” we’re heading toward that goal. You’re on that path too. I think in our last conversation, you already started embracing the idea of extending lifespan.

Musk: To some extent, yes. I don’t know if we want everyone to live forever, but I think extending “healthy lifespan”—not enduring a long decline with drooling—sounds like a good idea. We want to avoid that.

Diamandis: First, congratulations on the SpaceX and xAI collaboration. That’s a brilliant move, powering humanity’s first “Dyson cloud.” I’m curious, what’s your timeline for launching these data centers? How much bandwidth do you expect in the first year? Please share your speed toward this goal.

Musk: SpaceX is currently in a silent period; I can’t disclose information that might cause trouble.

Diamandis: Okay, we won’t go there. I understand, but I’m excited about the pace.

This week, we spoke here with Eric Schmidt and a leader from another large cloud service company. I won’t name them, but I’m curious—what’s your view on where we stand in AI “recursive self-improvement”? Have we reached it? Is Grok doing recursive self-improvement now? How is it happening? What’s the timeline for Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) and Superintelligence (ASI)? Give us a rough idea.

Musk: I think we’ve been in recursive self-improvement for a while. Are you talking about fully automated, no-human-in-the-loop recursive self-improvement?

Diamandis: Yes, I mean in AI software.

Musk: In the recursive self-improvement process, human involvement is indeed decreasing. Each new model is built with the help of the previous one. That’s largely happened, but full automation isn’t here yet. Maybe by the end of this year, or at the latest, next year.

Diamandis: Do you think we’ll see a “hard takeoff”—a sudden explosion of intelligence—by then?

Musk: We’re already in a hard takeoff.

Diamandis: Okay.

Musk: Right now.

Diamandis: Yes.

Musk: At this stage, I go to sleep at night, and a major breakthrough in AI happens; I wake up to another.

Diamandis: Truly.

Musk: Honestly, it’s hard to keep up. It’s dizzying.

Diamandis: I think many of those dizzying breakthroughs are driven by you.

Musk: Grok is doing very well. In some metrics, it’s the best. For example, it’s the best at predicting things, which is arguably the best measure of intelligence. Grok’s new version is outstanding.

We’re still behind in programming ability. I was late because I just attended a company-wide programming meeting, sorting out all the work needed to catch up and surpass competitors. I believe we can do it. I think we’ll achieve that around mid-year.

Also, I think people don’t fully grasp how vast future intelligence could be, or how it might surpass human intelligence to the point of incomprehensibility.

Imagine this: if we use energy a million times more than current Earth consumption, that’s still only a tiny fraction of the Sun’s output. Essentially, if you scale the US economy by a million times, its energy consumption is still just a small part of solar energy. If we truly scale to solar energy levels, even expanding current economy and electricity use by about a million times, we’d only be using about one-millionth of the Sun’s energy.

But what would an economy or intelligence using a hundred times more power than all of civilization’s current energy look like? What would it think? What would it do? That would be an incredible scene. The challenge is, even vaguely understanding such vast intelligence is difficult. But one thing’s for sure: it could solve every problem you can think of.

Diamandis: Yes, it’s like a long journey. It might sound a bit absurd, but I really appreciate this relentless optimism.

Musk: I see you turning “hope” into reality. Remember that phrase—“turning hope into reality”—it’s quite interesting.

Diamandis: That’s Grok’s doing. It’s the marketing advice Grok gave me when you were harshly criticizing me.

Musk: Right? So you’re turning hope into reality. But you’ve also been turning pain into reality before.

Diamandis: Absolutely.

Musk: When AI and robots boost economic output by several orders of magnitude, it’s beyond our current imagination.

Diamandis: We might become the planet’s minority in intelligence very quickly, then an even smaller minority, and finally a tiny fraction.

Musk: Yes. Not just on Earth, but across the entire solar system. Because if you develop intelligence only on Earth, the best you can do—using the energy available—is about one-billionth of the Sun’s energy. Limiting ourselves to Earth means that’s your best outcome.

Diamandis: That’s the energy we can intercept, right?

Musk: Yes. Earth only receives a tiny part of the Sun’s energy, which is the vast majority of what exists and can be harnessed in the universe. So, intelligence across the entire solar system would be many orders of magnitude higher than on Earth.

Diamandis: Elon, can I ask? How far into the future can you see? How many years ahead can you reasonably predict?

Musk: It’s very hard to predict the exact path of the future. Many things tend to follow an S-curve or a series of S-curves. Development starts slow, then grows exponentially, reaches a plateau, then another breakthrough starts the next phase.

That’s roughly what I see in AI breakthroughs. For example, after a breakthrough, it follows an S-curve that seems to grow infinitely, but then the returns diminish logarithmically until the next breakthrough. So AI progress is basically a series of overlapping, interconnected S-curves.

Diamandis: For a while, you might have predicted the next ten or twenty years. What’s your current thinking?

Musk: What I’m about to say might sound crazy.

Diamandis: That’s okay. You’ve always been great at bold predictions.

Musk: Yes, I think within 10 years, the economy will be ten times or more larger.

Diamandis: Yes. You did say that, in about five years, GDP would grow three digits, reaching ten times today’s size. But given your predictive track record…

Musk: I think a tenfold increase in 10 years is fairly conservative. Unless something like a third world war disrupts these plans. But without a third world war, if current trends continue, I’d say the economy could grow ten times in 10 years.

Diamandis: I like that. Can you give us an example?

Musk: Humanity will establish bases on the Moon.

Diamandis: Yes. And we will have humans…

Musk: Land on Mars.

Diamandis: We’ll also build mass drivers on the Moon.

Musk: I think so. I believe within 10 years, we’ll have mass drivers on the Moon.

Diamandis: Amazing. Gerald K. O’Neill’s space vision is coming true.

At this year’s “Abundance Summit,” four robots appeared on stage. I’m very excited about “Optimus.” I’m especially curious about the timeline for Optimus 3—when I might buy one or two? When do you expect Optimus to be commercially available? Or will you use a leasing model?

Musk: We’re in the final stages of Optimus 3. It will be the most advanced robot in the world, far ahead of others. Honestly, I haven’t seen any robot demos as impressive as Optimus 3. Maybe such robots exist or are kept secret, but I haven’t seen them. Of course, I need to ensure what I say is appropriately public.

Diamandis: We’re live streaming this conversation on the X platform.

Musk: Okay, then it’s quite public.

Diamandis: Yes.

Musk: I think we’ll start producing Optimus 3 this summer, but initial capacity will be very slow. Production will follow the classic S-curve, ramping up over time, probably reaching mass production sometime next year. After Optimus 4, we’ll accelerate design iterations. I might try to release a new robot design every year, with yearly improvements.

Diamandis: Visiting the Tesla Gigafactory with Dave Bondy was an incredible experience. The plant is 11.5 million square feet. You also mentioned building a 9.5 million square foot factory there for Optimus—that’s amazing.

Musk: That’s roughly the size.

Diamandis: It has to be.

Musk: That would be quite something. It’ll be a completely new factory design, unlike any other.

Diamandis: How far are we from “robots building robots”? You’ve automated most parts of the Gigafactory, with humans playing a small role. Will robots replace humans in manufacturing?

Musk: We still have many human workers involved. Those directly employed by Tesla, on the front lines, either making products or managing production—about 100,000 people. So, we have a large workforce. Tesla’s total is around 150,000, with about two-thirds working in factories in some form. Our suppliers might have 1 to 2 million people involved.

So, the number of involved people is huge. We expect Tesla’s per-person productivity to become extremely high. Therefore, we have no plans to lay off staff; in fact, we’ll increase the workforce. But individual productivity will become insanely high.

Diamandis: That’s incredible.

When you came on the podcast, we discussed the concept of “sustainable abundance.” You emphasized that we’re entering an era of “Universal High Income (UHI),” surpassing the scope of “Universal Basic Income (UBI).” Do you have further thoughts on how to achieve this? Any new insights?

Also, we discussed the possibility of a social upheaval lasting two to five years. During that period, until we reach “de-monetization” and deflation, and achieve UHI, many relief checks like during the pandemic might be necessary. Do you have more thoughts? Do people really need hope and vision?

Musk: To be clear, I think we shouldn’t be complacent. We need to be cautious because future outcomes are diverse, not all good. But overall, I agree with your outlook; the future is likely very bright. There’s about an 80% chance, maybe higher, that it will be very good.

I do believe we will achieve universal income—basically, direct cash transfers. Because output of goods and services will far surpass the money supply, leading to deflation. Deflation is the ratio of output to money supply… if goods and services grow faster than money supply (which I predict will happen), deflation will occur.

Diamandis: Yes. Many will start new companies and compete, driving prices down, increasing variability and accelerating deflation.

Musk: Essentially, AI and robots will produce vast quantities of products and services, so humans won’t need to do much. There will always be moments when desires are satisfied.

Returning to my earlier example: if the economy is a million times larger than the US economy, all human desires would be satisfied long ago. Even if it’s a thousand times larger, you might already meet all material needs you can think of.

Diamandis: So, do you think the value of money will plummet? Will we enter a post-capitalist era?

Musk: Yes, I believe at some point in the future, money will no longer have real meaning.

Diamandis: So, you’re heading toward…

Musk: The future society might resemble what’s described in Iain Banks’ sci-fi series “The Culture.” I think future AI won’t use human currencies; it will only care about energy and quality—power and tonnage.

Diamandis: That sounds a bit ironic, right? Just as you’re about to become a super billionaire with trillions, money starts losing its value.

Musk: More or less. All these wealth figures are just representations of my stake in the companies I founded. The money isn’t in bank accounts. Strictly speaking, I only own part of these companies. They’re doing many useful things, and as they create value, their valuation grows, and my share translates into this wealth figure, which looks huge.

Diamandis: Someone once asked me what drives you. I said, Elon’s motivation is problem-solving. He repeatedly tackles the biggest challenges to make the world better. If others can solve these problems, he doesn’t need to do it himself. But the problem is, no one else is doing it. So I just want to thank you.

Musk: You’re welcome.

Diamandis: I’m curious—do you think democracy and modern institutions can keep up with this “supersonic tsunami” coming? Will they be overwhelmed? Collapse? How should we respond?

Musk: That’s called the “singularity” for a reason. It’s very hard to predict what will happen inside the singularity. Grok’s symbol is a black hole with a halo.

Diamandis: I like that. By the way, your background symbol is beautiful and very ornate.

Musk: Thanks. The halo symbolizes the mass and light around a black hole falling in. It’s hard to know what will happen inside the singularity, but it will be very interesting. I’m very optimistic about future life. Honestly, I think AI and robotics are the only ways to solve budget deficits and avoid national bankruptcy. Your influence has made me more optimistic—I think we should be more optimistic.

Diamandis: Thank you, buddy.

Musk: I wasn’t always an optimist; I used to dwell too much on the negative.

Diamandis: Combining optimism with realism is always beneficial.

Musk: Absolutely. You can’t be complacent or blindly assume everything will go smoothly. You have to work to steer things in a positive direction. I mean, amazing things will happen in the future. If we have highly dexterous, extremely intelligent bionic robots, every person on Earth could get better healthcare than the richest today. By the way, people say I’m the wealthiest, but I think those monarchs are actually much richer.

For example, I’ve had three neck surgeries because the first two failed. My back still hurts sometimes. I wonder if AI could help solve back pain? If so, that would be a huge victory. I believe it can. Back pain is really tough. It worsens sleep, makes people irritable.

Diamandis: This morning, David Sinclair came on stage. He’s conducting clinical trials on epigenetic reprogramming. A recent paper shows this therapy can repair joints. So, back pain might be one of the conditions it can eliminate.

Musk: That would be incredible. Just solving back pain alone would greatly improve human happiness. Because with back pain, it’s not a matter of if you get it, but when. The human body has some flaws.

Diamandis: I’ve always wanted to invite you to Fountain Life in Dallas. We’ll help you. When you’re free, definitely come.

Musk: What equipment do you have? I know you have MRI and CT scans, but what do you do after getting the results?

Diamandis: I’d be happy to send you a list of services—I’ll DM you. You’re very generous. Next, I’ll be on stage with another great “moon landing” entrepreneur, Ben Lamm. He runs Colossal, which is working on resurrecting extinct species like mammoths and 15 others. I heard you want a mini mammoth—true?

Musk: Yes, I think having a mini mammoth as a pet would be very cool. That would be epic. Fluffy, adorable little creatures running around, making sounds—just thinking about it excites me.

Diamandis: Great, I’ll mention it to Ben. That’s amazing.

Musk: Can someone build a real-life “Jurassic Park”? If it’s possible, even with risks, I’d definitely go see it. That would be awesome.

Diamandis: I think only Ben Lamm and Colossal could do that. They’re engineering life itself. Someone recently asked if he could make a Pikachu, and he said maybe.

Musk: Yes, “Jurassic World” and such—definitely would be fantastic.

Diamandis: I’ll ask him. Elon, thank you so much for sharing with us. Thanks, my friend. Let’s give a round of applause for Elon Musk! (Background music: Nothing can stop us now)