Multiple Institutions Raise U.S. Economic Recession Probability

DeepFlowTech · 2026-03-26T05:30:10+00:00

Due to the ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict, the US economy faces greater downside risks, with institutions raising the probability of an American economic recession. Moody's analysis shows that the recession probability over the next 12 months has reached 48.6%, while Goldman Sachs estimates it at 30%. If high oil prices persist, recession will become a real threat.

DeepFlowTech

2026-03-26 05:30:10

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Deep Tide TechFlow News, March 26 — According to Jinshi Data, due to the prolonged U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict adding additional downside risks to the U.S. economy, several institutions have recently raised their estimates of the probability of a recession in the United States. As of March 25, U.S. sources report that Moody’s Analytics models show the probability of a U.S. recession within the next 12 months has risen to 48.6%; Goldman Sachs has increased its forecasted probability to 30%; Wilmington Trust and Ernst & Young each estimate the chance of a U.S. recession at 45% and 40%, respectively. Under normal circumstances, this probability would be around 20%. Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi stated that the concerning thing is that the recession risk is “uncomfortably high and continues to rise,” making a recession a real threat. If current high oil prices persist into late May through the end of Q2, “the U.S. economy will fall into a recession.”

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