HTX DeepThink: The rate cut expectations have failed, and the crypto market has entered a re-pricing phase under triple macro pressures.

Deep Tide TechFlow message, March 27. HTX DeepThink column author and HTX Research researcher Chloe (@ChloeTalk1) analyzes and points out that the impact of this round of macro variables on the crypto market has further evolved from “risk appetite driven by loose expectations” into a three-pronged suppression framework: “higher interest rates for longer + energy shocks + liquidity contraction.” In her latest remarks, Jerome Powell formally retains the median forecast of one rate cut within the year, but the core signal is even clearer: until inflation shows sustained, credible cooling, policy will not turn toward easing. The market has already completed the first round of rapid repricing; short-term interest rates remain elevated and even have upward stickiness, meaning that the earlier trading logic based on “cutting rates in advance” has essentially failed. For the crypto market, this directly weakens the valuation anchor, subjecting high-beta assets, AI narrative coins, and assets without cash-flow support to more obvious valuation compression pressure.

Meanwhile, the situation in the Middle East continues to disturb the energy market, with oil prices rising and reactivating the risk of “second-round inflation.” The key to this change is not inflation itself, but how it constrains global liquidity: higher energy prices will squeeze households’ and institutions’ risk budgets and extend the global high-interest-rate cycle, thereby imposing a systemic drag on all risk assets. Under this framework, the crypto market’s core is no longer the simple classification of “risk assets or safe-haven assets,” but rather a reshuffling of “liquidity priority.” In extreme cases, BTC may still benefit from fiat credit and sovereign-risk narratives, but in normal conditions its price still relies heavily on U.S. dollar liquidity. Therefore, in the short term it is more likely to exhibit a structure of “holding up well rather than rising.”

In Japan, the Bank of Japan may hold steady, but the policy path still points to exiting ultra-easy policy. If the yen continues to weaken and the central bank fails to provide more explicit tightening signals, volatility in global carry trades may surge again. Once the yen funding chain tightens, historical experience suggests that high-volatility assets will bear pressure first, making it hard for the crypto market to remain independent of that shock. What to watch closely now: first, whether U.S. inflation and employment data continue to reinforce “higher for longer”; second, whether the Bank of Japan releases a clearer rate-hike path in April. If both resonate, the market will enter a phase of “liquidity contraction + volatility amplification.”

From a trading structure perspective, the current market has moved into a stage of “light beta, heavy structure.” BTC still has a relative advantage because it combines liquidity and macro narrative; ETH depends on on-chain activity and the recovery of capital flows; and most altcoins remain in a valuation repricing cycle. Overall, the market has shifted from “liquidity-driven upside” to “seeking relative returns under constrained conditions.” In the short term, the main line is not to go broadly long, but to wait for the repricing window after the macro path becomes clear.

Note: This article is not investment advice, and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, or recommendation of any investment product.