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This is important to understand.
At first glance, the previous two ranges on Bitcoin look very similar.
But under the surface, they are actually pretty different.
The current range is now at day 67, and by this time on the previous one, we had already begun to break down.
And there are two important differences here to understand.
1. With the previous range, funding was highly positive the whole time, meaning more people were longing. This time, funding is much more negative, meaning a lot more people are positioning on the short side(less long liquidations to hunt).
2. Coinbase premium was deeply negative in the previous range, with heavy selling across Coinbase. This time, it is much more positive, with the one period of going negative being short lived.
In addition to that, Coinbase premium is still positive, even as Bitcoin has been dropping over the last few days.
What this tells us is that Bitcoin is a lot more resilient in this range, being supported by positive premium and a stronger base with fewer longs to liquidate.
Overall the appetite for Bitcoin here is much deeper, with retail being much more positioned on the short side, which is a tell tell indicator of bottoming structures. Funding hasn't been this consistently red for a while.
Therefore, to expect a violent leg down from here, like the previous range, is misguided. We have a much stronger base.
Now we have reached this 67th day without breaking down, I am 95% conifdent the major low was $60k, and the chances of even sweeping it are reducing a lot by the day.
Now is not the time for shorting...
It is the period for heavy bidding.