Sykodelicc

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Is a 100% move coming for $ETH?
Nice hidden bullish divergence printed on the Weekly chart here.
Last time this happened, $ETH rallied 100%.
For those that don't know, a hidden bullish divergence is when the RSI makes a lower lower, but price makes a higher low.
It means that momentum was actually stronger, but price absorbed it better.
Its a Bullish continuation signal and on HTF it matters more.
ETH-4,55%
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What the hell is this timeline...
Its become so utterly bear jaded that Its genuinely baffling.
This is the state of comments over and over, on every post i see.
Crazy times.
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Same thing happens every cycle.
And its always around mid cycle peak.
This further hits home where we are and my overall thesis.
You can see that each time Global Liquidity breaks out, Bitcoin moves slightly higher, then has a multi month correction...
Just like now.
Then, as global liquidity continues to increase, Bitcoin resumes higher again.
Last two cycles Global liquidity broke out for 671 days and 731 days.
Very similar.
So far, this cycle, we are only at 306 days.
What is also very striking to observe is that the contraction of global liquidity this cycle was much larger than 2016 and 2
BTC-3,23%
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Here is my thesis.
Broken down and put forward with key charts that I think show the greatest signal of it.
A lot of people don't understand why I think what I do... why I am targeting a continued cycle and new highs this year...
When surely a prolonged bear market seems obvious?
Overall, this chart highlights almost all the key differences we have seen within this cycle that have to be accounted for, and explained.
But most notably, in my view, it shows us exactly where we are in the cycle right now...
Even if it looks a little different to what most of us expected.
It looks a little complex
BTC-3,23%
ETH-4,55%
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Max pain is now officially, up.
People say this all the time and usually it is not the case.
But the market bottoming here and pushing on to new highs in aggressive fashion, this year, is the most unexpected scenario right now.
It would quite literally leave the space utterly stunned.
Almost everyone is expecting 4 year cycle lows, $35k in October, then new highs 2029 etc.
Suggesting anything different is simply attacked right now.
But right here, Short term holders reached the most overextended Bollinger bands, and most STH losses since 2018.
What that means is short term holders have capitul
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I'm calling it now...
The ISM is going to come in even higher than 52.6 for Feb.
The US economy is now fully within expansion mode, and the process of it entering expansion like this has always sparked large bull runs... 100% of the time.
To signal this, the top chart is "Deere & Co" a large industrial machinery company, and there stock is god candling like it never has before.
That is not for no reason. This is expansion.
Next is IWM, which is small cap stocks, which mirror closely to Deere & Co as small caps only perform well in economic and liquidity expansion.
Then below, ETH, which moves
ETH-4,55%
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Its all happening at the same time.
The Clarity Act has been given a deadline of March 1st.
With now an 84% chance on Polymarket.
This is one of those things were they will be positive, then negative, then positive... then it will seem like it'll never happen... and then all of a sudden it does.
So lining up for the beginning of March is:
- Clarity Act
- Next ISM print
- New Lunar cycle
- All bears are gay
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This is very clean.
When you take emotions out of it and just observe Bitcoin on the 1M with simple metrics...
You can see its just in one massive uptrend, with a breakout and retest of previous ATH...
Every cycle.
Whats interesting is that every cycle:
- BTC at least tags the 1M 50EMA
- At least tags its old ATH
- Never closes a candle below its old ATH
- RSI resets to a very similar level
The main difference this cycle is that the RSI never entered overexpnasion.
From a TA perspective, this is very clean.
If we were to close a monthly candle below $61,400 it would be the first time it has ev
BTC-3,23%
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More records have been broken.
2025 was Ethereums worst year on record.
11 out of the last 14 months have been red.
And 2025 tied 2018 with 9 out of 12 red months.
Simply put, this last 14 months has been Ethereums worst ever performance over that period of time.
So if you have been here this whole time, you have endured the worst market conditions ever.
If you've made money, you're truly skilled.
The silver lining?
The last time ETH performed like this it had 5 green months in a row.
Soon.
ETH-4,55%
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This cycle was different.
Fundamentally different.
1. New ATH before the halving
2. No true overbought expansion on 1M RSI
3. The whole cycle in ISM contraction
These are very big factors that cannot just be ignored.
So when looking at this current bear phase, we cannot look at it the same way as before.
The 1M RSI is already at the 2015 and 2018 bear market lows, and very close to 2022 lows.
In addition it has already tagged the 1M 50 EMA.
And it has made it there after only 4 months.
What this shows us is that just how we never had true expansion, we would be silly to expect the same contrac
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You do not need to overcomplicate it.
I don't understand why everyone finds its so hard to see these things.
Well, I do, because emotions rule 99% of people.
But anyone can line up these three fundamental macro charts and analyse where we are.
It literally takes two minutes.
In every single cycle we have had:
1. GOLD tops as ISM moves into expansion
2. Bitcoin tops between 476d and 517d after
It is very clear to see that.
And it is not a coincidence this happens, it happens for fundamental macro reasons.
GOLD is a strong risk off asset that performs well in economic and geopolitical uncertaint
BTC-3,23%
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This is a massive difference.
Finally, we are seeing a much lesser amount of longs pile in.
We have $1bn in longs and $20bn in shorts.
20x more short liquidations than longs.
Whilst at the same time, I have seen over the last few days...
- So many Bitcoin going to zero posts
- Perma bears revising their targets after every drop
- Quantum FUD literally everywhere
- Time Capitulation taking effect
Few more LTF moves here and we start to work on taking out these shorts.
$64k/65k first.
BTC-3,23%
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Looking for something like this.
$65k - $73k.
Then we see how it holds.
Timeline getting pretty exhausted now.
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This is a very important chart.
Above we have the PSCF, which represents the performance, price movements, and market trends of the Invesco S&P SmallCap Financials ETF.
This essentially represents small-capitalisation U.S companies in the financial services and real estate sectors.
Basically, the companies that are the most sensitive to liquidity, borrowing, interest rates, credit etc. Small cap financials and regional banks.
This performs well in times of economic expansion and easing liquidity and badly in times of contractions. It is a lot more sensitive than that of the main S&P500 for ex
BTC-3,23%
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Alts are starting breakout against Bitcoin.
The last two times this happened Alts outperformed against Bitcoin for:
2016- 574 days
2019- 770 days
Now, in 2026, they have broken the weekly trend and already put in 5 green weekly candles against Bitcoin.
This is not what has ever happened within traditional bear markets.
You can very clearly see that in every bear market since OTHERS has existed, this chart enters a steep and aggressive downtrend against Bitcoin.
And right now, its been consolidating and now breaking higher as Bitcoin has been dropping.
I'm not saying we are going to get 770 day
BTC-3,23%
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There will never be another alt szn...
Is all you hear, everywhere.
Alts have never been declared more dead than they are today.
And yet, while that is happening, a 100% hit rate signal for alt szn has just flashed.
This has predicted 6 out 6 alt szns, and it's happening right now.
Just as everyone thinks they're done and has bought metals.
It will never change.
Every single time the 3W MACD has flipped bullish, it has sparked an alt szn...
And for at least 6 months.
Call me delusional, retard, whatever...
This is just what the chart says... and i tend to listen to those over braindead reply g
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It’s pretty simple.
Rates are coming down
Clarity act will be passed
Money will be very cheap
The tokens will send.
In 2022 after we topped we had
- 9% inflation
- had expanded the money supply by $3tn
- been in business cycle expansion for 18 months
Contraction was imminent.
Today, inflation is 2.4%, we finished the longest period of QT ever and the business cycle has just started expanding again.
The situation we are in could not be more different to 2022 and to expect this year to play out the same way, is folly.
The underlying market foundation could not be more different to las
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This is something that most people will never be able to manage.
You make the most money when fewer people agree with you.
Most people simply move with the herd, finding comfort in the majority.
But the majority lose in this game.
For example, In this cycle, No one expected a new ATH before the halving.
But that’s exactly what we got.
Hardly anyone would believe it before it happened, but it did.
And there will be many other things that happen for the first time.
So If your entire investment strategy is based on only things that have happened before, you’ll always be one step behind.
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This is most severe its ever been.
OTHERS is at its most oversold position that it has ever been in.
Right now, OTHERS is -2.5+ standard deviations from the mean value.
There are only two other times in history that this has been reached.
1. COVID on a wick
2. 2022 Bear market low on a wick
But right now, we have a candle sitting on this level, which explains the horrendous sentiment around alts.
This kind of overextension has literally never happened...
And people think alts are gonna drop by another 50% here?
No chance.
OTHERS never even expanded this cycle, which is why this correction has
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