ChongChongGeGeWu

Today’s analysis using moving averages.
Since ETH has pulled back after approaching the $3,300 level, this is a typical “false breakout” or “pressure-triggered correction” from a technical perspective. Currently, the price has fallen back to around $3,240 - $3,250, and the entry point for short positions has entered the “confirmation stage.”
Combining the latest moving averages (MA) and KDJ trends
1. Market situation analysis: What does the rebound and fall mean?
1. Confirmation of resistance: The vicinity of $3,300 is not only a psychological barrier but also a major area for bulls to take profits and bears to hide. The rebound and fall indicate that selling pressure above is much heavier than buying pressure.
2. KDJ trend: At this time, the 1-hour and 4-hour KDJ indicators are highly likely to be forming a death cross from above 80 (or the J line is starting to turn sharply downward). This is a sign of waning momentum.
3. Moving average divergence: The price just surged too quickly, causing a significant deviation from the 5-day moving average (MA5, currently around $3,220). According to the mean reversion principle, the price has a strong tendency to move closer to MA5 or even MA10.
2. Adjustment of short entry points
Since the pullback has already occurred, the current entry logic shifts from “accumulation” to “confirmation of breakdown”:
Strategy 1: Aggressive (enter on rebound)
• Entry zone: $3,260 - $3,275
• Logic: After a rapid decline, the price often experiences a slight “second rebound.” If this rebound cannot recover $3,280, it indicates that bears have taken control.
• Stop loss: $3,280 (if the price breaks above the recent high again, exit the short position).
Strategy 2: Conservative (add on breakdown)
• Entry zone: Short when breaking below $3,220 (support at MA5).
• Logic: Once $3,220 is broken, it means the short-term upward trendline has been broken, and the death cross on KDJ will officially open downward, creating space.
• Stop loss: $3220
3. Target levels and risk management
• First target (short-term): $3,180 (upper edge of yesterday’s consolidation zone, with minor support).
• Second target (wave): $3,110 - $3,130 (support zone at MA10 on the daily chart).
• Key signal reminder: If the price returns to $3,250 and continues to oscillate for more than 4 hours without falling, be cautious of the risk of KDJ forcibly forming a “golden cross” near 50 and pushing the price higher again.
4. Summary and advice
“Rebound and fall” is the most favored scenario for shorting. *Watch KDJ: If the death cross on the 15-minute/1-hour chart has already closed downward, enter directly.
• Watch moving averages: As long as the price stays below $3,260 (hourly MA5), short positions can be held.

That's a wrap! This is my year-end message for 2025 on behalf of the entire Gate team!
Wishing everyone a booming 2026, good health, and interesting days! (No more staying up late watching the markets, your hair is almost as empty as your wallet haha~)

Good morning, it's more than just a greeting.
GM = Gate Meme, a meme consensus belonging to the Gate ecosystem; GM = Gate Morning, the first on-chain greeting of the day. Now, GM firmly holds the position of Long Yi in GateLayer, becoming the core hub for capital, traffic, and belief. When Web3 users around the world say GM simultaneously, the cultural consensus cycle is complete. This is not just a slogan, but an expanding wave. All in Web3, starting with a simple GM.

#CryptoMarketWatch
Crossroads of Influences: How Next Week's Macroeconomics Could Shake Bitcoin's Price
While Bitcoin is consolidating around $88,000, showing a sluggish dynamics of (-0.22% for the day), the attention of major players is gradually shifting from the intra-market technical picture to external macroeconomic risks. The pre-holiday week may bring volatility capable of determining the trend for the end of the year.
📈Current technical background:
· Price: $88,072, balancing between the local minimum of ($87,800.3) and the maximum of ($88,574.6).
· Indicators: RSI (48.1) and KDJ (54/33/57) signal a neutral-weak bullish momentum. MACD, however, remains in the negative zone.
· Key levels: The Bollinger Band indicates the nearest resistance at $89,644 (middle line) and serious resistance at $94,105.4 (upper boundary). Support is at $85,182.6 (lower boundary).
🗽Main macro factor of the week: bet on the head of the Federal Reserve
The markets are holding their breath in anticipation of the main political intrigue: will former President Trump announce his candidate for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve during the Christmas period? Current odds have shifted in favor of Kevin Hassett (~54%), known more as a supporter of stimulus measures. His possible appointment could be seen as a signal for a more dovish monetary policy in the medium term, which has historically been positive for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
📊Reality Check: GDP and Inflation Data
On Tuesday, the world will receive a fresh slice of the American economy:
· Preliminary GDP for Q3: Will show how effective the previous rate cuts by the Fed were.
· Core PCE index (inflation): A key indicator for the Fed itself. Any unexpected exceedance of forecasts may cool expectations for a rapid easing of policy and put pressure on BTC.
📈📉Impact scenarios on the crypto market:
1. "Hawkish" surprise: If a more hawkish politician on inflation issues becomes the candidate (, for example, Warsh) or if the PCE data turns out to be high — this will strengthen the dollar and could send Bitcoin to test the lower Bollinger band ($85,182).
2. "Dove" outcome: Hassett's appointment combined with calm inflation data may trigger a breakout of local resistance and a movement towards the Bollinger middle line (~$89,644) and above.
3. Holiday lull: Low trading volume due to early market closures on Wednesday and the holiday on Thursday in the US may amplify reactions to any unexpected news flow, causing sharp but possibly short-lived spikes.
ℹ️Withdrawal:
Next week will present the market with an important choice: whether to continue consolidating in anticipation of clarity from regulators or to react to macro data with momentum. In conditions of low liquidity due to holidays, any statement or number can have an amplified effect. For Bitcoin, it remains critically important to hold the support level of ~$85,000. A breakout above $89,600 could open the way for a retest of annual highs.
💥What to watch: Trump's statement ( if it follows ), PCE data ( Tuesday ), overall sentiment of global markets in a shortened trading week. Technically important levels are $85,200 and $89,600.

#加密市场观察 How will Japan's interest rate hike affect the crypto market, and could there be a black swan?
The likelihood of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates on December 19, 2025, is very high. The market generally expects a 25 basis point hike to 0.75%, with an over 80% probability. A former BOJ official predicts that there could be three more rate hikes after this, with the final rate reaching 1.5%.
The upcoming rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) centers around withdrawing the "cheap yen" that has supported global high-risk assets for decades, which will trigger a severe market reassessment.
To understand its power, first recognize a hidden giant — yen arbitrage trading. Over the past few decades, Japan’s near-zero interest rates made the yen the cheapest financing currency worldwide. Investors borrow almost free yen, convert it to dollars, and flood into high-yield assets like U.S. stocks, emerging markets, and cryptocurrencies. This model is massive, with some analysts estimating its total exceeding $19 trillion.
Core Impact Pathways: Reversal of Cheap Capital Flows
Once the BOJ continues to hike rates, this enormous capital chain will begin to tighten in reverse, exerting multiple pressures on the crypto market:
1. Direct Impact: Arbitrage Liquidation
· Cost Surge: Borrowing costs for yen are no longer free, squeezing arbitrage margins.
· Exchange Rate Pressure: Rate hike expectations drive the yen’s appreciation, leading investors to face exchange losses when repaying yen loans.
· Forced Liquidation: Facing dual pressures, institutions holding large leveraged positions will prioritize selling the most liquid assets to repay loans, often targeting crypto assets first. Some analyses point out that Bitcoin, which dropped from around $92,000 to $83,800 in early December 2025, was directly related to arbitrage liquidations triggered by yen strengthening.
2. Indirect Impact: Tightening Global Liquidity and Reduced Risk Appetite
· Liquidity Source Tightening: The world loses an important low-cost funding source.
· Shift in Capital Attraction: If Japanese government bond yields continue rising to attractive levels (the 10-year yield recently hit highs not seen since 2008), capital may flow back to Japan from overseas, further draining risk markets.
· Risk Aversion Rise: Against the backdrop of “Japan tightening, the U.S. possibly easing,” global market uncertainty increases, and risk-averse sentiment will first impact high-volatility assets like Bitcoin.
Could this be a “Black Swan”?
Likely not a complete “black swan,” but tail risks cannot be ignored.
· Market Expectations: Currently, the market highly anticipates the BOJ’s rate hike at the December 18-19 meeting, with probabilities once rising to 70%-80%. The real “black swan” would be an unforeseen sudden shock, but markets are already gradually digesting this.
· Partial Digesting: The Japanese bond yield curve has risen significantly this year, reflecting market pricing in the policy shift.
· True Risk Points: The real risk lies in the rate hike exceeding expectations in magnitude or pace, or during the liquidity-scarce period at year-end (such as December 19), triggering chain reactions of margin calls and leverage unwinding.
Market Reaction Forecast: Short-term Pain and Long-term Divergence
Based on various analyses, market responses may occur in three stages:
Short-term (a few days before and after the decision): Volatility and downward pressure.
This is the period of greatest market tension. Any hawkish surprise signals will quickly trigger sell-offs through arbitrage liquidations. Investors should be especially cautious of extreme volatility risks in highly leveraged altcoins.
Mid-term (weeks to months): Market will seek new equilibrium.
After panic selling subsides, markets will re-price based on the new liquidity environment and policy outlook. Notably, some analysts suggest that the policy uncertainty being resolved (“the shoe dropping”) could eliminate a major uncertainty, and historically, Bitcoin tends to show resilience after macro pressures. Meanwhile, yen appreciation will also reduce the cost for Japanese domestic investors to hold dollar-denominated crypto assets.
Long-term (structural impact): Reshaping the global crypto capital landscape.
If Japan enters a sustained rate hike cycle, it will have profound effects on global capital flows. This could force the crypto market to reduce reliance on a single cheap currency leverage. Additionally, Japan’s clear regulatory framework and potential exploration of digital yen (CBDC) may attract new compliant institutional funds.
Countermeasures:
In summary, Japan’s rate hikes will have systemic impacts on the crypto space, tightening global liquidity “valve” and testing the market’s leverage and risk appetite.
For investors, rather than guessing the outcome of a single event, it’s better to examine your own holdings:
· Reduce leverage: This is the primary step to cope with any macro shocks.
· Focus on core assets: During market turmoil, mainstream assets with high liquidity (like BTC and ETH) have much stronger risk resistance than altcoins.
· Monitor key signals: Keep close tabs on USD/JPY exchange rate and Japanese bond yields, as they are leading indicators of capital flows.
Every major market stress test exposes risks and serves as a test of long-term value and narrative strength. This time is no exception.#广场发帖领$50 #参与创作者认证计划月领$10,000

Liangqiu: Bitcoin/Ethereum Short Positions Once Again Capture Significant Profits in the Early Morning
For Bitcoin/Ethereum, the strategy of taking short positions after price surges was implemented twice yesterday. During the day, shorts were entered above 91,600 and 3,150, with prices dropping to lows around 89,600 and 3,075. Later, in the early morning, shorts were entered again at 91,000 and 3,150, and the market once again spiked and then pulled back. As of now, the lowest points have reached around 89,700 and 3,090. These two short trades have secured a profit of 3,300 points and 130 points, respectively. Congratulations to those who followed the strategy and successfully captured significant gains.
Many friends say they can’t keep up with the strategy or miss out on the profits, and there’s not much that can be done about that, since the opportunities are visible every day. The win rate of the daily analyses and strategies is relatively high and can be clearly seen. Please note, these analyses and strategies are for reference only—trade at your own risk. The article review and publishing process is not real-time; please refer to live updates for the latest information! #参与创作者认证计划月领$10,000 #美联储降息预测 #SUIETF正式上线