AndronyRabbit

The upward momentum over the past 4 hours still exists, but it has entered a deep zone of "high-level consolidation" and "bull-bear struggle."
Here is an in-depth analysis:
1. Is the momentum still there? — "At the end of a strong bow" or "Gathering strength for a move"?
• The upward momentum remains solid:
• Moving average support: On the 4-hour chart, the EMA short-term moving averages still maintain a bullish arrangement, with the price consistently staying above 3,120 (Bollinger middle band).
• Higher lows: After today’s Asian session opened, ETH successfully rose from 3,144 to 3,190, and a quick pullback to around 3,160 was immediately supported. This "not breaking previous highs on pullback" characteristic indicates bulls still have confidence.
• Signs of weakening (be alert):
• MACD divergence risk: Although the fast and slow lines are above zero, the growth rate of the energy bars has started to slow down, indicating that the "explosive power" is weakening, and the market may shift from "one-sided surge" to "oscillating upward."
• 3,200 resistance mountain: The price repeatedly tests around 3,190, and trading volume begins to decrease in this zone, indicating increasing selling pressure from bears and cautiousness from bulls.
2. Short position setup: short-term vs mid-term
Since you want to bet on short positions, currently it’s a "counter-trend top-fishing" scenario, requiring precise stop-loss:
【Short-term short: betting on a false breakout】
• Logic: Use the psychological pressure of the 3,200 integer level to capture a quick pullback.
• Entry point: 3,198 - 3,205 (place orders slightly above 3,200 to catch the spike).
• Small stop-loss: 3,218.
• Logic: If the 15-minute candlestick closes above 3,215, indicating that 3,200 has been effectively stabilized, the short must be stopped out.
• Target: 3,155 - 3,165.
【Mid-term short: betting on a phase top】
• Logic: The wave of price recovery early 2026 has accumulated a large amount of profit-taking, and if BTC encounters resistance at 91,000, ETH will experience a deep correction.
• Entry point: 3,250 - 3,280 (this is an important previous dense trading zone).
• Stop-loss: 3,310.
• Target: 3,000 - 3,050.
Key points:
Current conclusion: Long positions are still safer than short positions.
• Short squeeze environment: In this market condition, short stop-loss orders will turn into fuel for bulls. If volume breaks through 3,200, it will trigger a large number of "short squeezes," causing the price to spike instantly to 3,250.
• Trend protection: As long as the 4-hour level does not fall below 3,120, the trend remains upward.

XRP Tonight's Decisive Moment! The 2.0 USD Critical Level Life-or-Death Battle, Break Through and Sky's the Limit, Fail and the Abyss Awaits
Dear investors, the market has reached another crucial moment. When I open the XRP candlestick chart, a strong signal hits me—an epic showdown over the 2.0 USD level will unfold tonight. The price seems to be teetering, but technical indicators hide subtle clues. This "calm on the surface, turbulent undercurrents" situation is a precursor to a market reversal.
I’ve received countless private messages: "Will XRP break 2.0 USD and take off tonight, or fall below 1.76 USD and crash?" As an analyst with years of experience in the crypto market, I decide to break down every key detail of this battle.
Institutional Funds Are Frenzied Buying—This Is Not a Drill!
First, a major piece of news many overlook: US XRP spot ETF bought over $8.44 million in a single day! Among them, Bitwise’s XRP ETF alone contributed $5.18 million, with cumulative net inflows surpassing $253 million.
What does this mean? It’s Wall Street voting with real money. While retail investors hesitate, institutions quietly build positions through compliant channels. Every ETF buy order reflects traditional financial capital’s confidence in XRP’s long-term value.
From a macro perspective, the Federal Reserve’s December FOMC meeting just sent a "nuclear" signal—cancel the $500 billion daily limit on standing repurchase agreements (SRP), allowing banks to use unlimited government bonds as collateral for liquidity. Global liquidity taps are loosening, and profit-seeking capital will inevitably flow into the high-risk, high-reward "new frontier" of crypto markets. XRP, as a leader in cross-border payments, is undoubtedly a top target for institutional allocation.
Technical Analysis: The "Golden Cross" in a Downtrend Channel
Back to the charts, XRP is repeatedly testing the $1.86 level. This position is a "battlefield" for market dominance.
Bearish view: The price is indeed in a short-term downtrend channel, with resistance at $2.00 acting like a fortress, repeatedly tested but not broken. If it falls below $1.76, technical stop-loss orders will flood out, opening space for further decline.
Bullish view: Interestingly, the 1-hour MACD indicator has already crossed above zero, with the white and yellow lines forming a classic golden cross! This is a typical bottom reversal signal, indicating that bullish funds are secretly gathering. More importantly, this "divergence" between price and indicators is a classic trap set by major players to shake out weak hands and accumulate.
Based on experience, when 70% of investors are bearish, the market often moves upward—because the short positions are exhausted, and a slight push from the bulls can trigger a short squeeze.
Funding Data: Shorts Not Out Yet, Volatility Is Normal
On-chain data shows that the funding rate for XRP perpetual contracts is negative, meaning short sellers are still paying fees to hold their positions. Shorts are not dead, and the rally will continue—these short positions will become "fuel" for the upcoming rise.
However, this also means tonight won’t be smooth sailing. Before breaking through $2.0, the market needs to oscillate back and forth, shaking out weak hands and depleting short margin. This process may be torturous but is essential for healthy growth.
Practical Strategy: How to "Catch the Whole Fish"
Based on the above analysis, here is an actionable plan:
1. Avoid all-in bets; use laddered positioning
• If you haven’t entered yet, build a 20% core position in the $1.86-$1.80 range, with a strict stop-loss at $1.75
• If volume breaks through $2.00 and stabilizes, add 30% more, targeting $2.20
• If unexpectedly falling below $1.76, do not chase the falling knife; wait for stronger support around $1.60
2. Stop-loss is a lifeline—strict discipline required
No matter how optimistic, if a single loss exceeds 3% of your capital, exit immediately. Crypto markets are full of opportunities, but capital is scarce. Remember: only those who survive can enjoy the next bull run’s profits.
3. Watch volume closely—this is the test of true or false breakouts
• During upward moves, volume must increase by over 30%, otherwise it’s a trap
• During pullbacks, volume should decrease, indicating selling pressure is waning
• Pay special attention to the 1:00-3:00 AM (UTC+8) trading window, when institutions often launch their main attack
4. Cross-verify macro indicators
At 23:00 (UTC+8) tonight, key economic data will be released. If the data favors risk assets, XRP will gain additional momentum. Keep the CoinDesk and Cointelegraph news pages open to catch breaking news at any moment.
My prediction: The likely scenario tonight
Considering institutional funds, technical signals, and macro environment, I believe XRP has a 65% chance to follow a "first suppress, then rise" script:
• Phase 1 (20:00-24:00): Consolidation around $1.86, creating a false weakness to clear out weak hands
• Phase 2 (00:00-04:00): With continuous ETF inflows and dovish Fed expectations, bulls launch a surprise attack, testing the $2.00 level
• Key variable: If during the $2.00 attempt, the 1-hour volume exceeds $500 million, the probability of success is very high; if three attempts fail, expect a retreat to $1.80 for re-accumulation
Summary: Watch the quality of the $2.0 breakout above, and the strength of the $1.86 support below. In extreme cases, monitor the $1.76 lifeline.
This battle is not only XRP’s life and death but also a test of your trading discipline.
A few words from the heart
There are no gods in crypto—only probabilities and discipline. My role is to tell you the market truth in plain language, help improve your win rate, but I cannot guarantee 100% accuracy. True trading masters are risk management experts.
If you want real-time alerts at critical moments—like "XRP just broke through $2.0 with volume, chase now," or "Funding rate turns positive, bulls are about to surge"—follow me. I will guide you step-by-step to seize every turning point.
Now, go to the comments and tell me:
1. What is your current XRP position cost?
2. What are you most worried about tonight?
Like and share this article with friends holding XRP like you, so they can see the true intentions of institutions. In trading, information gap equals wealth gap—don’t let your friends be kept in the dark!
I am your market observer. Tonight, let’s witness history together. See you in the village!

Merry Christmas to everyone! On behalf of the entire Gate team, I extend our most sincere holiday wishes to you.

$ETH Daily profit-taking, making a profit of 193,000 from buying pp, leaving only about 10,000 in the account as principal each time. Seize opportunities, be bold and cautious, roll over positions when appropriate, never hesitate. Cut losses when necessary, never be vague. 60% luck, 20% courage, 20% current three days, with about 600,000 taken out so far. Today's profit of 200,000➕ is still running, keep going. I divide the profit into 100 parts, look for opportunities with small funds, act quickly, accurately, and decisively, without greed. How can I not make money?