AxelAdlerJr

The Coinbase Premium Index remains persistently negative (around -0.09), meaning BTC on Coinbase is trading at a discount to offshore pricing. This points to weaker U.S. side demand and potential selling pressure on Coinbase a bearish backdrop.

2025 was a successful year in terms of building new habits.

Stress Isn't Over: Short-Term Holders Underwater
The forecast model indicates continued pressure with an expected decline of approximately 3% over the weekly horizon while maintaining stress mode.

If you only look at Bitcoin’s price, you’re missing half the story.
Part 2 of On-Chain Fundamentals for Humans explains Realized Price - where real conviction sits versus hope-driven trades.

Volatility is compressed again.

Supply in Profit GAP is narrowing at 28K BTC/day.
This creates a 2-month window for a bullish cross.
But it's fragile: hold above $75K - cross by March.
Drop below $70K - 2022-style reset that takes a year to recover.
Which scenario are you positioned for?
☕️ Adler AM👇

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We’ve released the full 🇺🇸 U.S. macro report for November, with an outlook for Q1 2026.
Our model points to a late-cycle environment with persistent inflation pressure, while financial conditions remain supported by liquidity operations.

☕️Morning Brief #71 Capitulation Behind Us: Seller Pressure Down 80%
Weekly realized losses: $2.4B -> $0.5B. That’s not a pause - it materially reduces the risk of renewed capitulation.

Bitcoin Strategy & Market Analysis | W4 December 2025
8% below Fair Value looks like a discount - until you check P/L the market is selling at a loss. This is a divergence, not value.
The report breaks down the real drivers behind Fair Value, the reversal in derivatives flows, and the macro framework for Q1 2026 under a LATE/RECESSION-RISK regime.

Do you know what the best thing to do over the weekend is? Invest in your own education: understand what key on-chain metrics really mean and how to interpret them correctly.
I’m confident that by the end of this bear cycle, you’ll be a solid analysis pro - if you start now and focus on data, not noise.

The market is losing capital every day - participants are selling at a loss faster than they're taking profits. Three positive days out of five failed to reverse the trend.
Adler AM ☕️: Capital Continues to Leave the Network, Weekly Net Flow Remains Negative 👇

Get a production-ready model that turns mining economics into a 72% win-rate regime indicator - copy the SQL, plug into CryptoQuant and start using Hash Price as a directional risk filter today.
Merry Christmas 🧡

Bitcoin lost 20% in 3 months and shows negative YoY performance. But the drawdown itself doesn't define the regime. Q1 2026 becomes the verdict.
Which side are you positioning for?
Full RSI regime analysis in my latest brief 👇

☕️ Morning Brief #68
Short-Term Holder Market Enters Rare Pressure Balance Phase.

Short-term holder Net Pressure has dropped into the bottom 5% of its distribution. Price is trading below STH Realized Price, leading to equalization of buying and selling pressure.

The market is flooded with noise from experts, KOLs, and especially their PR machines. Stack cash for the next accumulation phase and use this time to learn the fundamentals.

A comprehensive on-chain education series many of you have requested.
The series consists of 8 parts covering the fundamentals of on-chain analysis. It will help you understand what core on-chain metrics actually mean and how to interpret them correctly.
While Bitcoin is pulling back, invest in yourself and your knowledge.

☕️Adler AM: Short-Term Holders Underwater, Sentiment Confirms Market Weakness
Sentiment and on-chain structure are synchronously pointing to market weakness. Short-term holders are underwater, and all key nearby support levels have turned into resistance.
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