**RRPGAw**

[April 17th Options Settlement Data]
22k BTC options are expiring, with a Put-Call Ratio of 1.05, the maximum pain point at $72,000, and a notional value of $1.65 billion.
100k ETH options are expiring, with a Put-Call Ratio of 0.95, the maximum pain point at $2,250, and a notional value of $460 million.
This week's market continues to rebound, with Bitcoin oscillating around $75,000, and the market beginning to warm up, with some concepts showing significant gains. The market share of Bitcoin options has slightly decreased, and altcoins are recovering. Regarding holding periods, the distribut

【April 10th Options Settlement Data】
27k BTC options are expiring, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.71, the maximum pain point at $69,000, and a notional value of $1.94 billion.
151k ETH options are expiring, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.77, the maximum pain point at $2,050, and a notional value of $330 million.
This week's market was stimulated by the US-Iran ceasefire, with Bitcoin directly breaking through $72,000, surpassing recent sideways trading ranges.
Bitcoin options market share has continued to stay above 80%, with the most open interest in late April and late June, mainly focusing

The world's understanding of Trump is less than 5%. Yesterday, he was still trying to erase Iran, and today there's a ceasefire agreement. Trump himself didn't open a long position, so it's hard to argue otherwise.
Bitcoin quickly surged to 72K, but the implied volatility (IV) of major expiry options is still declining, and even the IV of near-term options has decreased. The skew has been negatively affected by the upward movement. At the same time, due to the rise in RV, the VRP, which rebounded significantly yesterday, has fallen again.
Looking at the main options indicators, the rebound

【April 3rd Options Expiration Data】
28,000 BTC options are expiring, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.54. The maximum pain point is $68,000, with a notional value of $1.8 billion.
156,000 ETH options are expiring, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.73. The maximum pain point is $2,075, with a notional value of $320 million.
Today is the first weekly expiration after the quarterly settlement day. Bitcoin options market share has risen to a new level, clearly exceeding 80%. In terms of expiration dates, the most held positions are at the end of April and June, each accounting for about 23%. Ethereum has

Today, options trading volume accounts for nearly 30% of the total trading volume, mainly centered around the large Iron Eagle portfolio expiring tomorrow, with a notional value exceeding 7,000 BTC, betting that BTC will break through $68,000 tomorrow.
The use of premiums is not considered high, but directly betting on options expiring in 20 hours is still quite bold. In this situation, block trades are the most worth monitoring for follow-up or copying, as large trades often indicate strong opinions.

【March 27 Options Expiration Data】
68,000 BTC options are expiring, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.56. The maximum pain point is $74,000, with a notional value of $13 billion.
370,000 ETH options are expiring, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.56. The maximum pain point is $2,250, with a notional value of $2.12 billion.
Today is the quarterly expiration day. Approximately 36% of Bitcoin and Ethereum options are expiring. This week, a large number of options have been rolled over, with peak open interest exceeding 40%. Due to the large expiration, the call option ratio is high, and the PCR is only 0

Q1 Quarterly Large Settlement Day Approaching, Tomorrow Will Mark the Largest Options Settlement of the Year, with Nearly 40% of Options Expiring.
1. Key Settlement Data
BTC Max Pain (Max Pain): Currently anchored at $75,000, but it seems hopeless given the current situation. Put/Call Ratio (P/C Ratio): Maintained around 0.6, relatively low, indicating lower trading volume in put options, but overall sentiment remains bearish.
2. Volatility (IV) Warning: IV Crush is Coming. Currently, the front-end implied volatility (Front-end IV) close to expiration remains firm. But once the settlement tomo

BTC rebounded and maintained oscillations around $71,000, with the downside crisis temporarily lifted. IV across all major tenors showed significant declines, with BTC medium-term IV dropping over 5% from peak levels and over 3% compared to two days ago. ETH medium-term IV fell over 8% from peak levels and over 5% compared to two days ago.
Skew rebounded comprehensively, with many bearish options positions established during the crisis being closed out, restoring balance between bearish and bullish forces. This Friday marks the quarterly expiration with over 40% of options expiring. The most c

Trump: I will have a phone call with Khamenei a little later.

There are no significant macroeconomic data this week, with the only major macroeconomic event currently being that it's been nearly a month since the U.S.-Israel strike on Iran, and it remains unclear how the tensions will develop.
U.S. stocks have performed poorly over the past week, with major stocks and indices showing significant declines, and crypto has also been dragged down, effectively breaking through the 70,000 USD level. Implied volatility across all major option maturities is rising, Skew is declining broadly, and the market is concerned about escalation of the crisis.
Put options

【March 20 Options Expiration Data】
23,000 BTC options expiring, Put Call Ratio at 0.88, max pain point at $70,000, notional value of $1.6 billion.
176,000 ETH options expiring, Put Call Ratio at 1.04, max pain point at $2,150, notional value of $370 million.
The crypto market's latest rally has come to an end, with Bitcoin briefly breaking below the $70,000 round level. In the past week, $75,000 has been frequently mentioned as a key resistance level, with 5% of month-end options accumulated at this price. The final breakout attempt failed and prices retreated to around $70,000.
Next Friday is

The U.S. stock market continues to have significant impact on cryptocurrency. After 18:00 last night, major U.S. stocks showed notable declines, causing Bitcoin to be directly pulled down from 74000 to 71000. This downtrend also extended to the altcoin market.
However, the rebound from this round of decline lasted an extremely short time, and by this morning, prices have already fallen to lower levels than yesterday afternoon.
Despite Powell's hawkish remarks warning of inflation risks from regional conflicts, under which the Federal Reserve may not cut rates this year, the market has already

Quarterly options expiring at month-end now account for over 40% of open positions, with $75,000 call option contracts representing over 5% of single contracts—an unprecedented level of concentration, with everyone betting on $75,000.
The gamma wall and gamma concentration signify a consensus gathering of market sentiment. When everyone is in the same vehicle, either they collectively push the market in the desired direction, or they all crash together.
Bitcoin is currently trading at $73,500, very close to $75,000, sitting right at the upper band of about two months of consolidation. All the

After the weekly settlement, BTC surged significantly and has now approached $74,000, nearing the upper bound of the oscillation range since February.
The options market has shown a muted reaction. BTC doomsday options' implied volatility remains below 50%, while ETH doomsday options' implied volatility remains below 70%, both lower than the implied volatility of major tenors.
In terms of trading volume, large bullish options trades account for less than 30% of total volume, concentrated in shallow out-of-the-money near month-end expiry. This is relatively low for a 5% price movement. The opti

【March 13 Options Expiration Data】
26,000 BTC options expiring, Put Call Ratio of 0.9, max pain at $69,000, notional value of $1.8 billion.
182,000 ETH options expiring, Put Call Ratio of 1.21, max pain at $2,000, notional value of $380 million.
The crypto market continued its rebound this week, with Bitcoin reclaiming the $70,000 round number, though rebound momentum is declining. From options market data, short-term and medium-term option IVs decreased this week while long-term option IVs rose, but the magnitude was minimal. BTC's main-term IV is at 50%, ETH's main-term IV is at 70%, while R

The events of 312 seem like they happened last century already. Back then, implied volatility reached as high as 500%, and what limited that implied volatility wasn't market conditions, but rather exchange rules.
Six years have passed, and the options market has become very mature, no longer the wild west era of those days. Implied volatility has also been maintained below 60% for an extended period, no longer the market that frequently exceeded 100% back then.
However, the options market has grown from daily trading volumes of just hundreds of millions of dollars back then to tens of billions

Bitcoin has retaken the $71,500 level, and the current crisis has been alleviated. Implied volatility for all major tenors is rapidly declining, now back to levels seen a week ago.
The recently positive VRP has quickly turned negative. Within one day, the monthly VRP shifted from +2% to -9%, and the expanding negative premium trend indicates that market expectations for future volatility are lower than current levels.
The crisis seems to be over, but the extreme weakness in the crypto market during the first quarter of this year has not yet reversed, and market confidence remains very weak