The peak euphoria and greed was back in November 2024. BTC hit 100k for the first time MSTR blow off top Memecoin frenzy 2025 has been a cool off period from that. Sentiment tells you that.
The $100k strike price is now the overwhelming strike price for the end-of-January expiry for Bitcoin. There's no historical data, but thats been added in the last few days.
Bitcoin consolidated for around 53 days from the first capitulation wick in February to recovering in late April. So far bitcoin has consolidated for 40 days since the November 21 bottom.
This is the best representation of long-term holders/OGs selling since the U.S. ETF launch. (Due to options strategies and sufficient liquidity to absorb sell-pressure.) All cohorts are below their the ETF launch percentages as a share of supply. It seems the bulk of the downside is over and has now stabilised for all cohorts.
What's interesting about gold's volatility is that it had multiple 60%+ drawdowns before GLD launched in 2004. Post-GLD, the highest was 40%. Bitcoin has the same pattern: multiple 80%+ drawdowns, but since IBIT just under 40%.
Silver is less than 5% away from entering a "bear market". This is why terms like “bear market” and “recession” are nonsense. The world has evolved, but the majority of investors are still primitive in how they think about risk.
Bitcoin bottomed in November a month before MSTR (December) in the 2022 bear market. So far, Bitcoin has bottomed in November a month earlier than MSTR (December) in the 2025 bear market. History repeating?
The last 3 times Bitcoin was $87K, this is the lowest open interest has been. Speculation at its lowest. November 2024: 560k BTC April 2025: 555k BTC December 2025: 518k BTC