Glassnode

#Bitcoin stayed range-bound around ~$64–68K, momentum modestly improving but participation weak. Sell pressure eased slightly yet spot, derivatives, ETF, and on-chain indicators remain defensive.
Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇

Since early February, every attempt to reclaim $70k has met demand exhaustion, with even >$5M/hour in net realized profit triggering rejection.
Contrast that with Q3 2025’s euphoric phase, when profit realization surged to $200–350M/hour.
Ongoing regime of thin liquidity makes a sustained recovery into the $70–80k range structurally challenging.
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Range-Bound Under Pressure
Bitcoin has broken below the True Market Mean, slipping into a defensive range toward the Realized Price (~$54.9k). Spot and ETF demand remain weak, and panic hedging has eased.
Read the full Week On-Chain👇

$BTC Realized Profits-to-Value (30D MA) has retraced sharply, unwinding much of the prior profit-taking impulse. However, it remains above the historical capitulation band.
This suggests profit realization is cooling, but not yet broad capitulation.

The recent drop to $60k imposed drastic psychological pressure on “diamond hands,” comparable to the May 2022 LUNA crash.
In both cases, the 7D EMA of Long-Term Holder SOPR fell below 1 after trading for 1-2 years above it.
Simply put, long-term holders realized significant losses—a rare shift in conviction typically seen in deeper stages of bear markets.
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The LTH Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) Heatmap maps supply density across price levels.
The recent support above $65k is anchored in the 2024 H1 accumulation range. This demand zone has absorbed recent sell pressure.
A decisive break would likely open the path toward Realized Price (~$54k).
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$BTC NUPL is back in Hope/Fear (~0.18), showing profit cushions are thin. This regime tends to be reactive: rallies meet sell pressure, and downside can extend as conviction fades.
Chart of the Week available below👇

Structural Weakness
Bitcoin remains defensive in the $60k–$72k zone while overhead supply caps rallies. Treasury outflows, reactive spot volume, and cooling futures signal shallow demand.
Read the full Week On-Chain👇

Assuming the early October ATH marked the end of the recent bull market, this cycle saw very modest drawdowns, similar to the 2015–2017 market.
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At $67.4k, more than 9.3M bitcoins are underwater. This is the highest level since January 2023.📉

The $BTC capitulation metric has printed its second-largest spike in two years, highlighting a sharp escalation in forced selling. These stress events typically coincide with accelerated de-risking and elevated volatility as market participants reset positioning.

Bears In ControlThe $BTC bear market rages on as profitability resets, realised losses rise, spot demand stays weak, and leverage unwinds. Options keep pricing elevated downside risk.Read the full Week On-Chain👇

Hyperliquid positioning tells a clear story: Traders are net short ~240 BTC. Entry heatmaps show shorts added from higher levels, plus fresh shorts opening around $75k and current prices. Meanwhile, long interest remains notably thin. 📉

Stress Builds Below Resistance$BTC is consolidating with muted volumes, as spot bid rebuilds slowly while options markets lean increasingly defensive.Read the full Week On-Chain👇

Ethereum network fees just hit their lowest level since May 2017. 📉

Failed Breakout\n\n#Bitcoin is consolidating in a low-volume regime, with easing spot pressure, light leverage, and volatility priced as short-lived rather than structural.\n\nRead the full Week On-Chain👇\n

During the November–December bottoming phase, supply accumulation was primarily driven by larger entities, while smaller cohorts were distributing.
This divergence appears to be driven in part by exchange-related wallet reshuffling, and also by large holders buying the dip.
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Ethereum’s Month-over-Month Activity Retention shows a sharp spike in the “New” cohort, indicating a surge in first-time interacting addresses over the past 30 days.
This reflects a notable influx of new wallets engaging with the Ethereum network, rather than activity being driven solely by existing participants.
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Bouncing Into Supply
#Bitcoin has entered the new year with constructive momentum, printing two higher highs and extending price to $98k, but the advance now runs directly into a historically significant supply zone.
Read the full Week On-Chain👇

Across the top 500 cryptocurrencies, the latest move triggered the largest short-liquidation event since 10/10.
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