Morgan Stanley's latest forecast is drawing attention: in Q4 2026, gold prices are expected to break through $4,800/ounce. Behind this judgment is the joint push of the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle, central banks' continued accumulation of gold reserves, and escalating geopolitical risks.

Data speaks most powerfully. Spot gold surged 64% in 2025, creating its strongest performance since 1979. Meanwhile, global central bank gold reserves as a share of total reserves have surpassed US Treasury holdings for the first time—a trend unseen since 1996. This shift is profoundly meaningful. Silver and copper are equally impressive, with silver gains reaching 147% and copper prices hitting all-time highs.

Geopolitical events such as Venezuela's turbulent situation and US military involvement have further stimulated safe-haven demand, with investors flocking to traditional safe-haven assets. Morgan Stanley's assessment is that gold has become a "barometer of global risk." ETF purchases and central bank accumulation form a dual-engine driver, while dollar weakness provides additional tailwinds for gold's upside.

For observers of the crypto market, this surge in commodities reflects deeper shifts in global asset allocation—risk reassessment, liquidity restructuring, and rising risk-aversion sentiment. The strong performance of traditional safe-haven assets also mirrors the market's concerns about uncertainty.