Phá vỡ đà tăng của Ethereum: các tổ chức liên tục tham gia, nâng cấp BPO thúc đẩy Layer-2, nhưng RSI cảnh báo quá mua

【Coin Circle】Ethereum’s recent momentum is quite strong. A 24-hour increase of 1.13% isn’t much, but the key is that it has risen nearly 9.60% over seven days, which stands out particularly in the current depressed crypto market environment.

From a capital perspective, there was a net inflow of $114.7 million into spot Ethereum ETFs on January 6 alone, indicating that institutions are indeed increasing their positions. The underlying logic is clear — the Dencun hard fork activated on January 8 increased blob capacity per block, directly reducing Layer-2 rollup costs, which perfectly validates Vitalik’s “rollup-centric” roadmap. Technical and capital aspects have converged.

On-chain data is even more interesting. Over the past month, whales have net increased their holdings by over 3.62 million ETH, while exchange ETH reserves hit a nine-year low. This pattern of “large holders accumulating while exchanges are depleted” is typically a bullish signal — true stakeholders are locking in their positions while circulating supply is shrinking.

However, here’s a word of caution. The RSI has already surged to 64, a classic overbought signal. Short-term volatility risk is not insignificant. Technically, upper resistance is at $3,307 (aligned with the 100-day moving average), and lower support is at $3,132 (50-day moving average). This range is the near-term trading space. Institutions’ continued entry is positive, but don’t get swept up by the rally — overbought conditions are often harbingers of reversal.