Fed Governor Mikan's recent moves have truly left the market bewildered.

Here's what happened: Just days ago, he confidently gave a clear expectation of around 150 basis points of rate cuts in 2026, then turned around and said "I know nothing about my future at the Fed." The contrast is quite stark—on one hand, there's a monetary policy signal that affects global capital allocation, and on the other hand, there's self-exculpation about "uncertain personal position," and these two statements instantly turned the market's sentiment into complete chaos.

Why does this matter so much? Because Fed officials' statements directly move the dollar exchange rate and capital flows. 150 basis points is no small magnitude—it's enough to reshape global investors' expectations about future interest rate environments. But now, nobody can figure it out: is this a consensus reached within the Fed, or just Mikan's personal whim?

What's even more frustrating is that the market is in a bind. If you treat this as an official signal, and policy suddenly shifts one day, you'll be trapped. If you discount it, you risk missing the real policy inclination. This "float the signal, then disavow it" approach undoubtedly adds more fog to an already uncertainty-filled monetary policy outlook.

So traders need to think about this: is there some subtle game-playing happening within the Fed? Will other officials subsequently confirm this 150 basis point expectation? How the dollar moves next probably requires continued observation.