#预测市场 Seeing the Polymarket security incident, my thoughts drift back to those years of ups and downs in prediction markets. Around 2018, we witnessed the dreams of Augur and Gnosis, when everyone believed decentralized prediction markets were the crown jewel of DeFi. And then what? Liquidity issues, user experience challenges, one project after another bowing to reality.

This third-party vulnerability incident at Polymarket essentially exposes not a new problem—but an old one the entire industry has never truly solved. Identity verification service providers like Magic Labs do lower the barrier to entry for newcomers, but the risk concentrates at a single point. Back when DeFi's flash loan attacks and contract vulnerabilities happened frequently, I kept thinking: the balance between convenience and security never stops swinging.

What cuts deeper is that Polymarket to this day refuses to disclose the number of affected users and the loss amount. This reminds me of how many times "limited-scope security incidents" were later discovered to have far-reaching impacts. The lack of transparency discounts user confidence. For prediction markets to truly take off, the core isn't about the richness of trading varieties, but whether they can establish mechanism-level trust.

History tells us: each security incident is a node in industry evolution. The question is, this time, will Polymarket truly shore up its defenses, or will it continue to dance between patches and risks.