BITCOIN Price Analysis:

Every big player and serious investor knows that once the FED starts cutting rates, we usually see a strong correction afterwards. In my opinion, the September meeting can and should be considered as the first significant rate cut, given current market events. It’s the most important one compared to the last cut since 2020 in September 2024, which showed no signs of correction. Back then, people were calling for a strong pullback, while I said clearly that the September 2024 cut was not significant at all, and I was proven correct. In terms of market understanding, such a FED pivot is considered a soft landing, followed with consolidation and stabilization, which the FED indeed managed to achieve. My prediction then proved more than correct, ignoring all the garbage talk about stocks and crypto that the markets are “always” dropping after the first cut. That is simply not true. The real drop happens only after the first SIGNIFICANT cut, when uncertainty kicks in and opinions split. That is why this cut is completely different, and why it will lead to a strong correction in stocks and crypto. Don’t compare this cycle to others or to other emergency cuts; each rate cut is unique and should be analyzed on its own terms. I strongly believe that this rate cut will play a key role in the market correction that will take place in September. The next FOMC meeting is set on 17th of September.

比特幣價格分析：
每一位資深玩家和嚴肅投資者都清楚，當联准会(FED)啓動降息週期後，市場往往會出現深度回調。結合當前市場態勢，我認爲2024年9月的議息會議應當被視爲本輪週期首次具有實質意義的降息——相較於2020年以來的歷次降息，這次會議的重要性截然不同。2024年9月那次降息並未引發回調，當時市場普遍預期將出現劇烈回撤，而我明確指出那次降息根本不具備實質影響力，事後驗證了這一判斷。

從市場認知維度看，這類联准会政策轉向通常被視爲軟著陸信號，後續會伴隨市場整固與企穩——联准会確實成功實現了這項目標。事實證明我的預測完全正確，那些關於"首次降息後股市和加密貨幣必然暴跌"的論調純屬無稽之談。真正的市場轉折點出現在首次具有重大意義的降息之後，當不確定性開始彌漫、市場觀點出現嚴重分歧時。這正是本次降息與既往截然不同的根本原因，也解釋了爲何它將引發股市和加密資產的深度回調。

切勿將本輪週期與歷史週期或緊急降息相提並論——每次降息都具有獨特性，需要基於其特定背景進行分析。我堅信本次降息將成爲引發9月市場修正的關鍵催化劑。下一次聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)會議定於9月17日舉行。
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