【轉】Global Economic Research Update: U.S. Fiscal Crisis and Strategic Tariff Moves

Greetings, Members this is a part of the Research I was Doing .

The current U.S. fiscal situation is far more complex than what’s portrayed in the mainstream headlines. While discussions often center around the spending bill deadlock, the core issue lies in the Treasury’s liquidity crisis — simply put, there isn’t enough cash available to sustain both debt servicing and government spending.

1. Cash Flow Breakdown:

The Treasury’s available reserves mainly in the(Treasury General Account) and (Reverse Repo Facility) are rapidly depleting. This creates a scenario where the U.S. government must choose between paying (interest on treasuries) to avoid default, or funding (essential public spending) — salaries, social security, and contractor payments.

2. The Legal Constraint:
Under the (Federal Reserve Act), the Fed can’t directly fund the government. It can only perform (Quantitative Easing (QE) — buying treasuries from the market to maintain liquidity. However, this only shifts ownership of debt; the Treasury must still pay interest, whether to investors or the Fed itself.

3. Borrowing Limit & Fiscal Trap:

The debt ceiling has already been reached early in the fiscal year. Without new borrowing authorization, the Treasury relies entirely on tax inflows — insufficient for sustaining both debt obligations and spending. Raising the ceiling might offer temporary relief, but it doesn’t solve the underlying insolvency risk.

4. QE vs. Hyperinflation Risk:

While QE may provide short-term liquidity, printing money directly for government use would be illegal and catastrophic — potentially leading to (hyperinflation) similar to Zimbabwe’s experience.

5. China Factor & Trade Tactics:

Currently China fully understands the fragility of the U.S. fiscal position — and so does the (Trump administration), which is why it’s strategically leveraging the (tariff war).

翻譯內容:
全球經濟研究更新：美國財政危機與戰略關稅動向

各位會員，以下是我正在進行的研究報告部分內容。

當前美國財政狀況遠比主流媒體報道的更爲復雜。雖然討論常聚焦於支出法案僵局，但核心問題在於財政部流動性危機——簡言之，現有資金已不足以同時維持債務償付和政府支出。

關鍵要點：

1. 資金流分析：
財政部可用儲備資金（主要存放於國庫一般帳戶及逆回購工具）正在快速消耗。這形成美國政府必須在兩難間抉擇的局面：是支付國債利息避免違約，還是維持必要公共支出——包括薪資、社會保障與承包商款項。

2. 法律限制：
根據《聯邦儲備法》，联准会不得直接向政府提供資金，僅能通過量化寬松政策——從市場收購國債來維持流動性。但這僅轉移債務所有權，財政部仍須支付利息，無論接收方是投資者還是联准会自身。

3. 借款限額與財政陷阱：
債務上限在本財年早期即觸頂。若無新增借款授權，財政部完全依賴稅收收入——這遠不足以同時支撐債務償還與財政支出。提高上限或可暫緩危機，但無法根本解決償付能力風險。

4. QE與惡性通脹風險：
量化寬松雖可提供短期流動性，但直接印鈔供政府使用屬違法行爲，且可能引發災難性後果——或導致類似津巴布韋的惡性通貨膨脹。

5. 中國因素與貿易策略：
當前中國充分認知美國財政狀況的脆弱性——川普政府同樣清楚這點，這正是其戰略性地運用關稅戰爭的原因所在。
#TRUMP #美国实施新一轮关税措施
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