From on-chain valuation metrics, Ethereum is entering a historically significant accumulation zone. Data shows that ETH's MVRV ratio has fallen back to the 0.8-1.0 range, an area historically associated with undervaluation and accumulation phases. Previous entries into this zone have signaled major expansion phases, with returns in early cycles exceeding 130%, 280%, or even 5,000% and above.

Technical analysis indicates robust buy support around $2,100, an area that has become the focal point of long-short dynamics. If this level can be held and stabilized, the market is expected to bounce toward the $2,200-$2,250 resistance zone; if effectively broken through, the structure will weaken and may further test the $2,000 psychological level.

From a long-term narrative perspective, Ethereum is undergoing a transformation of its value capture logic. With the Glamsterdam upgrade approaching (raising the Gas limit to 200 million and introducing parallel execution), Ethereum is transitioning from a platform that "sells Gas" to an underlying trust layer that "sells security settlement services." Baseline returns from staking and restaking will replace Gas burns and become the core support for ETH valuation.

Key Takeaways

· MVRV Signal: Entering the 0.8-1.0 historical accumulation zone indicates undervaluation.
· Key Support: $2,100 is the dividing line between bulls and bears; holding this level targets $2,200-$2,250.
· Long-term Narrative: Glamsterdam upgrade reshapes the value model, transitioning from Gas sales to security settlement. $ETH