محلل Bitunix: تباطؤ التوظيف يعزز التوقعات بالتيسير، مؤشر PMI الليلة قد يكون محفزًا قصير الأجل للذهب والأصول المشفرة

BlockBeats News, January 6th: Research institutions point out that the structural cooling trend in the US labor market is deepening, with unemployment rates, quit rates, and wage growth weakening in sync, indicating a slowdown in demand rather than short-term fluctuations. This means that even without economic recession, the Federal Reserve may be forced to adopt a more aggressive rate-cutting path over the next one to two years than currently priced by the market to avoid “excessive tightening.” At the macroeconomic level, if real interest rates decline faster than expected, mid-term pressure on the US dollar becomes almost inevitable, and capital will seek assets that offer inflation protection and hedge against currency credit risk. Gold therefore regains structural support, and this logic is gradually extending into the crypto market. Bitunix Analyst View: Against the dual macroeconomic backdrop of employment slowdown and weak PMI data, the market has already begun front-running the loose policy risk premium. Gold’s bull market structure is solidified by falling rate expectations, while the attractiveness of crypto assets is being progressively repriced. If PMI falls below expectations, it will reinforce safe-haven and loose policy bets in the near term, potentially triggering rapid gold rallies and heightened crypto market volatility. In the medium term, this will reinforce the loose narrative and benefit risk asset valuation recovery, but caution is warranted regarding repeated capital flows into US dollar liquidity and volatile assets.