Coinbase: 2026 Crypto Market Outlook

Source: Coinbase; Compiled by Golden Finance

Recently, Coinbase released the “2026 Crypto Market Outlook” report. In the report, Coinbase delves into various factors that will shape the landscape of the crypto economy over the next year, from detailed outlooks on BTC, ETH, and SOL, to the latest developments in regulation, market structure, and tokenization. Additionally, we will analyze the impact of Bitcoin's four-year cycle, the risks posed by quantum computing, and the effects of significant platform upgrades, such as Ethereum's latest Fusaka hard fork and Solana's upcoming Alpenglow.

The following are the key points of the report:

Market Trends

Cautiously Optimistic:

Coinbase believes that the U.S. economy remains resilient, and the continuously improving labor productivity can cushion the impact of the slowing economic growth. Therefore, we think that the landscape of the cryptocurrency market in the first half of 2026 is closer to “1996” rather than “1999” (in other words, we are optimistic about next year), but we also acknowledge that there is still significant uncertainty in the market.

Regulatory progress:

In 2025, we witnessed milestone progress in the regulatory landscape in the United States and globally, which led to the emergence of new spot cryptocurrency ETFs and Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT), as well as driving broader institutional participation. We believe that a clearer global framework will continue to change institutional approaches to strategy, risk, and compliance in 2026.

Organization adopts:

DAT expanded its buyer base in 2025, but there has been a recent valuation-driven consolidation. We anticipate the emergence of the “DAT 2.0” model in 2026, where future versions will no longer be limited to simple asset accumulation, but will focus on professional trading, storage, and procurement of sovereign blockchain space, viewing blockchain space as a key commodity in the digital economy.

Tokenomics 2.0:

As policies become clearer, the economic interests of token holders are linked to platform usage, and the protocol is moving towards value acquisition—this includes mechanisms such as fee sharing, buybacks, and “buy-and-burn”. We believe this signifies an emerging shift from a purely narrative testnet model to a lasting model tied to revenue.

Technological Revolution

Privacy Requirements:

As institutional adoption increases, users' demands for control and confidentiality are also growing. We expect technologies such as zero-knowledge proofs (ZKP) and fully homomorphic encryption (FHE) to continue to develop, while the use of on-chain privacy will also significantly increase with the widespread application of cryptographic infrastructure.

AI × Cryptocurrency:

Autonomous trading agent systems require open and programmable payment methods. Protocols such as x402 can enable high-frequency microtransaction settlements and support agents that can initiate, manage, and protect on-chain services.

Application-Specific Chain:

The surge of professional blockchain networks is rapidly reshaping the competitive landscape of crypto infrastructure. We believe that the ultimate goal is to build an inter-network architecture with native interoperability and shared security, rather than an endless system composed of countless isolated systems.

Tokenization:

Real-world asset tokenization (RWA) has seen significant development in 2025, with tokenized equity representing an emerging field. Given the advantages of atomic composability, its rapidly growing prospects are quite enticing, and the DeFi-style loan-to-value (LTV) ratios far exceed traditional margin frameworks in many cases.

The Next Big Event

The combinability of encrypted derivatives:

Perpetual contracts are shifting from isolated leveraged trading to the core foundational functions of DeFi—integrating with lending, collateral, and hedging. With the continued growth of global retail participation in U.S. stock trading, we believe stock perpetual futures contracts are expected to become the preferred choice for a new generation of retail traders, offering both round-the-clock trading and capital efficiency.

Prediction Market:

It is expected that trading volume will further expand by 2026, as changes in U.S. tax policy may encourage users to shift toward these derivatives-based markets. While market fragmentation may pose risks, we believe that prediction market aggregators are likely to become the dominant interface layer, with weekly trading volumes potentially reaching tens of billions of dollars.

Stablecoins and Payments:

Stablecoins have solidified their position as the primary application scenario in the crypto ecosystem. Our stochastic model predicts that by the end of 2028, the total market value of stablecoins is expected to reach around $1.2 trillion. It is anticipated that more new application scenarios will emerge in areas such as cross-border transaction settlements, remittances, and payroll platforms.

Finally, we believe that the cryptocurrency industry is currently equipped with the conditions to move from theory to practice and will increasingly integrate with the core financial system. The opportunities in the future are immense, but whether they can be realized depends on strong execution in areas such as product quality, regulatory compliance, and user-centered design. By focusing on these areas, we can ensure that the next wave of innovation can benefit everyone anytime and anywhere.