Bitwise interpretation: Why is Bitcoin's volatility in 2025 actually lower than Nvidia?

According to the latest research report released by asset management firm Bitwise, Bitcoin (BTC) is entering a new market phase. The report points out that unlike the early market conditions dominated by high leverage and speculative sentiment, today’s Bitcoin market is gradually being reshaped by institutional funds and regulatory frameworks, which significantly dampens extreme price volatility.

Bitwise believes that institutional access, compliance, and the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs are replacing the previous narratives centered around halving events and short-term speculation. This structural shift is gradually freeing Bitcoin from the label of “high-risk speculative asset” and moving it into a de-risking process. The report specifically highlights that over the past decade, Bitcoin’s rolling volatility has continuously decreased, and in 2025, its annual volatility is expected to be even lower than NVIDIA, drawing widespread attention in the market.

In Bitwise’s view, Bitcoin ETFs have become the new “market whales.” When ETF outflows occur, the market often interprets this as a risk-avoidance signal; conversely, sustained net inflows into ETFs indicate a clear increase in risk appetite for Bitcoin and the overall crypto market. This ETF-centric capital behavior is reshaping the price discovery mechanism of crypto assets.

On the data front, Bitwise disclosed that since the launch of Bitcoin spot ETFs, related products have accumulated approximately 710,777 BTC in purchases, while the new supply on the Bitcoin network during the same period was only about 363,047 BTC. The firm expects that by 2026, ETF demand for Bitcoin, Ethereum (ETH), and Solana (SOL) may overall surpass the new supply, further strengthening institutional dominance in the market.

In terms of market performance, Bitwise believes that in the current cycle, crypto-related stocks are expected to significantly outperform traditional tech stocks. Its “Crypto Innovators 30 Index” has gained a total of 585%, markedly higher than the approximately 140% increase in tech stocks.

Looking at price trends, Bitcoin is currently supported around $88,000, with a more orderly correction compared to previous cycles. When it previously dipped into the $80,000 range, the MACD briefly entered an extremely bearish zone, but the overall adjustment still demonstrated strong resilience. This further confirms Bitwise’s view: Bitcoin is gradually evolving into a more mature, lower-volatility mainstream risk asset.