BTC broke through $40,000 ETH the mysterious retreat of the big whale SSV became the focus

Recently BTC situation with ETFs has been unpredictable. Today we’re going to dive into this topic and find out what’s going on.

First of all, the exciting news is that the SEC announced on Wednesday that it had extended Franklin’s ETF, which was really unexpected. The exact booking time was booked early next year, but it was brought forward. This means that there may be a major change in the application that is about to take place. Strikingly, the final decision date for the BTC spot ETF is January 10 next year. If the SEC only announces the results on the same day, even if it is approved, it may face the risk of the market being exhausted and triggering an overall correction. Of course, this is in line with the speculation they approved, and the official announcement was made before the January 10th issue.

Next, the news to be shared can be a bit frustrating for everyone. That’s whether the SEC will actually approve BTC spot ETFs. For those who are new to the crypto space, the current market is full of information that can be unsettling and dazzling. They may not have lived through the last market cycle and don’t know enough about it. And as a seasoned investor, I can tell you unequivocally that in the 2019 small bull market, a similar situation happened, and the end result was that the ETF was rejected and Wall Street completed a successful sell high and buy low.

In addition, there are some potential risks to be aware of, such as the market maker is targeting a long position of more than $6 billion, is it bullish or bearish at the moment, and what other potential is worth paying attention to, these are the questions we are thinking about. Therefore, before you need to invest, be sure to do adequate research and analysis, and don’t blindly follow the herd. Overall, the outlook for BTC ETFs has indeed undergone many changes, and everyone should remain vigilant and rational However, I believe that as long as we remain rational and high-quality, we will be able to succeed in this market. The above personal views and suggestions, investment needs to be high-quality, and the market is risky.

In April '19, the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) began reviewing Bitwise’s ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) applications, triggering a sharp rise in multiple applications in the BTC market. However, in September of the same year, Fanda Capital canceled the ETF, which led to a sharp drop in the price of the currency, causing many retail investors to suffer heavy losses. By October, Bitwise’s ETF application was ultimately denied. This shows that Wall Street is using the news to hype the market, not for the first time and not for the last.

Therefore, for those who are new to the crypto space, the currency space should not be overly blindly optimistic. Judging from the strategy of creating suspense, if the SEC now approves the ETF, then they will have no means to continue to push the market in the future. Therefore, they chose to drive a wave of gains first and then wait until a year later to regain control of the market. This situation is more in their interest. It’s important to note that BTC all major compliance developments have occurred during a bull market.

For example, in late 2017, BTC CM-1 options were approved, and in late 2021, futures ETFs were also approved. All of these successfully triggered the price of the currency at that time to push to the high point of the cycle. Therefore, according to this logic, BTC spot ETFs may not materialize until 2025. Despite the fact that people in the crypto world are always self-motivated and self-motivated, and major institutions have expressed confidence, the SEC’s attitude on this has not been clear. This is just speculation. Although the normal probability of approval may be less than 20%, we still believe that the probability of approval this time is as high as 70%.

Among them, there is a 50% probability that Shuxing is confident in the high approval rate of BlackRock ETF. As long as BlackRock’s ETF is not revoked, it should still have a chance to pass. However, regardless of the outcome, when the ETF results come out, the market is likely to fall, and may even fall earlier. If it passes, the market may briefly rise, such as supporting the 40,000 mark. But it is also possible that the direct positive will be exhausted and a pullback will begin to appear. If it doesn’t pass, the market could fall sharply, especially now that there are a lot of long positions, which could trigger a chain of Chinese New Year and cause some markets to fall sharply. On less liquid exchanges, it may fall below the 30,000 mark. In general, this means that both of these situations are possible.

The last dip before buying the bottom has become the last wave of the big bull market, don’t panic, especially for newbies, be brave enough to buy the bottom.

SSV is a good project with a very strong rally. Like Lead, it is a project in the ETH staking space, but it has a smaller market capitalization, so it may have more explosive power after the Cancun upgrade. The recent operation can be said to have been very successful, and the contract has even achieved a total win record.

Next, let’s look at some data to explain why ETH is relatively weak. Recently, there has been no significant increase in the amount of pledge in ETH, and the long-term buying volume has not changed significantly compared with the previous months. However, there is an unusual trend in the amount of unstaking withdrawals. With the rise in the price of the currency, the number of exits has increased from 1500 to 2100, and the profit is huge. Therefore, many long-term large investors are unstaking one after another to achieve profits. This is not a positive sign. What’s more, yes, BTC the broader market has seen a top divergence at the daily level, and the MACD is showing an unfavorable. The big whales in ETH Fang have begun to reverse in the 2,100s. So, while the market looks very buoyant at the moment, it may just be in the air.

In addition, let’s pay attention to the long and short liquidation data of BTC contracts, which is a scene in a zero-sum game. The data of the past 30 days shows that the long positions have accumulated rapidly, and from the current price to between 34,000, 600 million Manhattan long positions have been accumulated. This is a piece of data that caught our attention. Imagine that if the price is smashed at the 34,000 position, the 600 million long orders will face the risk of liquidation. At the same time, the short position as a counterparty will gain 600 million.

Therefore, we would like to remind everyone not to be overly optimistic. The big wash in the spot market will eventually come, it’s just a matter of time. We need to reap the benefits of the market, rather than blindly chasing profits. Of course, it’s not that we can’t focus on the data, on the contrary, understanding the data can help us better understand the market.

Source: Golden Finance