Trump and Musk fall out over the "Big Beautiful Plan" - encryption reacts with a fall | Hotcoin Research Market Insights: June 2 - June 6, 2025

2025-06-07 15:51:34

Crypto Assets market performance

Currently, the total market capitalization of Crypto Assets is $3.34 trillion, with BTC accounting for 61.55%, which is $2.06 trillion. The market capitalization of stablecoins is $249.1 billion, with a 7-day increase of 0.72%, of which USDT accounts for 62.05%.

This week, the price of BTC is showing range fluctuations, currently at $103,655; ETH is also showing range fluctuations, currently at $2,481.

Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, a small portion have risen while the majority have fallen, including: SKY with a 7-day increase of 10%, LA with a 7-day increase of 183.83%, MASK with a 7-day increase of 47.53%, and ANIME with a 7-day increase of 37.33%.

This week, the net outflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the United States was $130.8 million; the net inflow of Ethereum spot ETFs in the United States was $280.8 million.

The “Fear & Greed Index” on June 6th was 46 (the index is lower than last week), and the sentiment for this week is: 7 days neutral.

Market Forecast:

This week, stablecoins continued to be issued, the US Bitcoin spot ETF showed a net outflow, continuing last week’s trend, and the Ethereum spot ETF saw a net inflow. Both BTC and ETH are range-bound. The RSI index is neutral at 49.59, the altcoin quarterly index is 18, and this week it was announced that the US seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls for May were higher than expected, and the “small non-farm” employment index was the smallest increase since March 2023. The Fear and Greed Index remains neutral.

The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in June is only 2.6%, with expectations for a rate cut to begin in Q3 of this year. The market shows two situations: listed companies ‘rushing to buy BTC’ and profit-takers and spot ETF sell-offs. If there are no major events or new liquidity influx, BTC will maintain fluctuations around 100,000 to 105,000 USD next week. Attention can be given to the progress of the relationship with Chuanma.

Understand now

Review of the week’s major events

On June 2, according to Cointelegraph, at the ETHGlobal Prague conference, Ethereum founder Vitalik stated that Ethereum will expand L1 scale by about 10 times within a year, and then “take a breath” before the next leap;
On June 3, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is seeking comments on whether to amend rules to allow the WisdomTree Bitcoin Fund to engage in physical creation and redemption.
On June 3, according to a late-night report by South Korea’s JTBC television, the Democratic Party candidate Lee Jae-myung was elected as the President of South Korea. Lee Jae-myung has promised to push for the approval of a Crypto Assets spot ETF and proposed the issuance of a stablecoin based on the Korean won.
On June 4, documents show that Trump’s social platform Truth Social submitted a Bitcoin ETF application;
On June 4, according to Decrypt, Ethereum co-founder and Consensys CEO Joe Lubin stated on Tuesday that his company is in talks with a “very powerful” country’s “major sovereign wealth fund and banks” about potential construction based on Ethereum.
On June 4, Donald Trump Jr., the son of former President Trump and co-founder of WLFI, clarified in a post that “the Trump Organization has no connection to this wallet product (developed in collaboration with Magic Eden and TRUMP Meme). Eric Trump and I are completely unaware of it. Please stay tuned – we are working hard on World Liberty Financial, which will soon launch our official wallet.”
On June 5, CoinDesk reported that stablecoin issuer Circle completed its IPO on the New York Stock Exchange at $31 per share, exceeding the expected pricing range ($24-26), raising $1.1 billion and valuing it at $6.2 billion. The ticker symbol is “CRCL” and will begin trading on Thursday. The IPO was originally planned to issue 24 million shares, but it expanded to more than 34 million shares due to a surge in demand. USDC, issued by Circle, is the second-largest stablecoin in the United States, and its listing comes at a time when U.S. lawmakers are pushing for a stablecoin regulatory bill.
On June 5, YZi Labs announced an investment in OneKey. OneKey is an open-source hardware wallet project focused on enhancing the security of crypto assets and empowering global users to manage their assets independently.
On June 5, the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book indicated that the U.S. economy had declined over the past six weeks, hiring had slowed, and consumers and businesses were worried about price increases related to tariffs. Regarding inflation, the report stated that prices were showing a “moderate increase” trend, but there was a general expectation among businesses that future costs and prices would rise at a faster pace.
On June 5, according to the Wall Street Journal, Trump seems to have lost patience with Musk after Musk criticized the Republican Party’s massive tax and spending bill. Meanwhile, Musk is frustrated with Trump’s decision to withdraw the nomination of a key ally to lead NASA. A senior White House official stated that Trump was unhappy with Musk’s decision to denounce the bill he signed, saying the president was confused by Musk’s decision to ramp up criticism after working closely together for four months. The official noted that Trump’s senior advisors were caught off guard by Musk’s latest offensive.

macroeconomics

On June 4th, the U.S. ADP employment figure for May recorded 37,000, the smallest increase since March 2023, with market expectations at 110,000.
On June 5, the European Central Bank lowered the deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2%, in line with market expectations, marking the seventh consecutive meeting of rate cuts. The main refinancing rate and the marginal lending rate were reduced from 2.4% and 2.65% to 2.15% and 2.4%, respectively;
On June 6, according to CME’s “FedWatch”: The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 97.4%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 2.6%;
On June 6, the U.S. seasonally adjusted non-farm payroll for May was 139,000, expected to be 130,000, and the previous value was revised from 177,000 to 147,000;

On June 7th, according to official data from the People’s Bank of China, China’s gold reserves at the end of May stood at 73.83 million ounces (approximately 2,296.37 tons), an increase of 60,000 ounces (approximately 1.86 tons) month-on-month, marking the seventh consecutive month of increasing gold holdings.

ETF

According to statistics, from June 2 to June 6, there was a net outflow of $130.8 million from the US Bitcoin spot ETF; as of June 6, a total of $23.208 billion has flowed out of GBTC (Grayscale), currently holding $19.327 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $69.137 billion. The total market value of the US Bitcoin spot ETF is $128.868 billion.

Net inflow of Ethereum spot ETF in the U.S.: $280.8 million.

Envision the future

Event Preview

NFT NYC 2026 will be held in New York, USA from June 23 to 25, 2025;
Permissionless IV will be held in New York, USA from June 24 to 26, 2025;
EthCC 8 will be held in Cannes, France from June 30 to July 3, 2025;
IVS2025 KYOTO will be held in Kyoto, Japan from July 2 to 4, 2025;
The “OpenLedger China Tour” Hong Kong station will be held on June 13 (Friday) from 18:30 to 21:30. This series of events will successively visit five cities (Hong Kong, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Shenzhen, and Chengdu).

Project Progress

The chain Skate, aimed at connecting all VMs, released its promotional video on X on June 9, which allegedly hints at the TGE date.
Base ecological social prediction market Upside is scheduled to launch on June 10.

Important Event

Circle froze 58 million USDT related to the Libra scandal, and the encryption law firm Burwick Law stated that it has applied for a temporary restraining order in the Southern District of New York Federal Court and has been approved, planning to hold a preliminary injunction hearing on June 9;
The Chairman of the U.S. House Financial Services Committee, French Hill, has scheduled the review date for the House Crypto Assets Market Structure Bill for June 10.

Token Unlock

GMT (GMT) will unlock 85.97 million tokens on June 9, worth approximately $4.33 million, accounting for 1.43% of the circulating supply;
Vana (VANA) will unlock 14.8 million tokens on June 12, worth approximately $94.48 million, accounting for 12.33% of the circulation.
Immutable (IMX) will unlock 24.52 million tokens on June 13, worth approximately $12.72 million, accounting for 1.23% of the circulation.
Starknet (STRK) will unlock 163 million tokens on June 15, worth approximately $21.59 million, accounting for 1.63% of the circulating supply;
Sei (SEI) will unlock 224 million coins on June 15, valued at approximately 42.61 million USD, accounting for 2.25% of the circulation.
Horizen (ZEN) will unlock 810,000 coins on June 15, worth approximately 8.28 million USD, accounting for 3.89% of the circulating supply.

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