The ETH/BTC ratio has fallen to a key support! When will the alt season start? Analyst: ETH rising to $5000 and BTC hitting a new high is a prerequisite.

The Ethereum/Bitcoin (ETH/BTC) trading pair has fallen to the critical support area of 0.032–0.034, sparking intense debate among analysts about when the “alt season” will arrive. Some analysts, such as Benjamin Cowen, believe that the onset of alt season must be predicated on Bitcoin breaking its all-time high and ETH surpassing 5000 USD. However, others challenge this view, arguing that Ethereum can independently drive market momentum. Despite differing opinions, most analysts agree that the ETH/BTC ratio is at a “critical juncture” determining the future direction of the market.

Bitcoin Dominance: The “Gatekeeper” of the Alt Season?

Many analysts insist that Bitcoin's dominance must reach a peak before the alt season can truly begin, based on historical cyclical patterns.

· Cowen's two main premises

Analyst Benjamin Cowen believes that the current stage is just the “prologue” to market expansion. He proposed two key conditions for the occurrence of alt season:

Ethereum needs to break through and stabilize above $5000. This in turn means that Bitcoin must also reach a new all-time high.

· Historical Cycles and BTC Dominance

Cowen summarized: “Therefore, the only way to start the 'alt season' is for BTC.D (Bitcoin dominance) to rise first as Bitcoin reaches new highs.” This pattern reflects that BTC.D tends to rise first in every market cycle.

· Dominance may have peaked.

Analyst AG pointed out that historically, the peak of BTC dominance does not necessarily synchronize with the peak of Bitcoin prices. Typically, once Bitcoin reaches its ATH, BTC.D often falls by about 30% from its peak. This suggests that the BTC.D high around 65% in June 2025 may have already marked the peak of this cycle.

· Delayed alt season

Data shows that BTC.D has increased by nearly 59%, while the alt season index has fallen below 75. This indicates poor performance of altcoins, raising concerns about a delay in the alt season. Some analysts even believe that the current “alt season” exists only in crypto stocks rather than tokens.

The Independent Driving Force of Ethereum: Challenging the Argument of “Bitcoin First”

Not everyone agrees that Bitcoin must lead the rally; historical data shows that Ethereum has the ability to drive market momentum independently.

· ETH/BTC is at historical support

Analyst Ted emphasized that the market has not officially entered alt season, but pointed out bullish signs:

The ETH/BTC trading pair is currently testing the support zone of 0.032–0.034, which is a historically significant level that has previously triggered strong rebounds in earlier cycles.

· The precedent of ETH rising independently

Analyst CryptoBullet challenged Cowen's argument, citing historical data to prove that in December 2017 and April 2021, Ethereum achieved significant increases of 88% and 79% shortly after Bitcoin peaked, demonstrating that Ethereum can drive market momentum without relying on Bitcoin for further growth.

· Macro liquidity support

Another important macro factor is the Federal Reserve's indication that it may end the quantitative tightening (QT) program, which could inject optimism into risk assets, especially altcoins that benefit from improved liquidity.

· The first upward trend in four years

Analyst FANG has taken a more bullish stance, noting that this is the first upward trend for ETH/BTC in four years, and firmly believes that ETH breaking through 5000 USD is just a matter of time.

Conclusion

ETH/BTC ratio has fallen to the key 0.032–0.034 support level, marking a turning point for the crypto market that defines its direction for the coming months. Although the debate about when the alt season will begin continues—whether it's Bitcoin hitting new highs as a necessary condition, or if Ethereum can drive independently—the ETH/BTC is in a historically significant rebound zone, coupled with a potential improvement in the macro liquidity environment, suggesting that the altcoin market may be brewing a major move. Investors should closely monitor whether ETH can hold this key support and observe its reaction to the $5000 level.

This article is news information and does not constitute any investment advice. The crypto market is highly volatile, and investors should make decisions cautiously.