Choosing the Cycle Turning Point: buy the dip, sell, or wait? Hotcoin Research | November 10-14, 2025

crypto market performance

Currently, the total market value of cryptocurrencies is $3.26 trillion, with BTC accounting for 58.7%, amounting to $1.91 trillion. The market value of stablecoins is $304.2 billion, with a decrease of 0.41% over the last 7 days. Notably, the number of stablecoins has shown negative growth for 3 consecutive weeks, with USDT accounting for 60.44%.

Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most have decreased while a few have increased, including: STRK with a 7-day increase of 72.26%, DRC with a 7-day increase of 65.91%, ZEC with a 7-day increase of 26.84%, B with a 7-day increase of 26.63%, and MET with a 7-day increase of 19.58%.

This week, the net outflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the United States was $1.111 billion; the net outflow of Ethereum spot ETFs in the United States was $729 million.

Market Forecast (November 17 - November 21):

The current RSI index is 43.52 (neutral range), the fear and greed index is 9 (the index is lower than last week, extreme fear range), and the altcoin season index is 39 (lower than last week).

BTC core range: $97,000-110,000

ETH core range: $3,000-4,000

SOL core range: $140-175

Market sentiment: In the past year, there were only 11 days of “extreme fear.” Looking back at past candlestick patterns, these 11 days were all “golden pits.” Does the investment theory of “buy in fear and sell in greed” still hold? After all, we are now at the “end moment of the 4-year cycle of crypto tradition!” On-chain data indicates that BTC is still in a mildly bearish phase, with a dense supply zone between $106,000 and $118,000 where many investors tend to sell around this cost range, forming strong resistance. The $100,000 level below is an important psychological defense line, while $97,000 is the bottom support of the range.

The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in December has fallen below 50%. The focus should be on the economic data reports after the U.S. government reopens.

For conservative investors: Buy on dips in batches or maintain ample cash, and never go “all in”!

For aggressive traders: In the current clear range of fluctuations, consider taking a light long position near the support level and reducing positions or shorting near the resistance level. Be sure to set a stop loss.

Understand now

Review of the week's major events

1. On November 10, according to a report by U.S. media on the 9th, the U.S. Senate has reached an agreement to end the federal government “shutdown”;

On November 11, the Federal Reserve Board member Milan stated on Monday that, given the softening labor market and declining inflation, the Federal Reserve should cut interest rates by 50 basis points in December. He believes that a reduction of 25 basis points is the “minimum appropriate action”.

3. On November 10, Coinbase officially announced on social media that the public sale of Monad tokens will start on November 17;

4. On November 12, the Solana-based digital asset reserve and consumer goods brand company Upexi announced “record” quarterly performance, with its digital asset revenue exceeding $6 million, driving overall gross profit to $8.3 million, a year-on-year surge of 183%;

On November 12, Coinbase and stablecoin infrastructure startup BVNK terminated a $2 billion acquisition agreement. If the transaction had been completed, it would have been one of the largest mergers and acquisitions in the history of the crypto market and would have significantly expanded Coinbase's institutional stablecoin business landscape.

On November 12, the Chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Paul Atkins, outlined its encryption “token classification” plan to clearly distinguish which cryptocurrencies are classified as securities, while the SEC is advancing digital asset regulation in a new way.

7. On November 14, the crypto market was hit hard again, with Bitcoin dropping to $98,000 this morning, currently reported at $100,294, and Ethereum falling below $3,200, currently reported at $3,252. The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies has decreased by 2.0% in the last 24 hours, currently reported at $3.45 trillion. The U.S. stock market closed with all three major indexes falling, with the Nasdaq down 2.3%, the Dow Jones initially down 1.6%, and the S&P 500 index down 1.6%. All U.S. stocks related to the crypto concept declined.

8. On November 14, Musk stated, “X has just launched a whole new set of communication features, including encryption messages, audio and video calls, and file transfers. X Money is about to go live.”

9. On November 14th, according to Coinglass data, the total liquidation in the crypto market over the past 24 hours rose to 748 million USD, with long liquidations at 596 million USD and short liquidations at 152 million USD.

macroeconomics

1. On November 14, hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials extinguished the market's hopes for a rate cut in December, coupled with a still chaotic data calendar and concerns over the artificial intelligence bubble, global stock markets and precious metals markets were severely impacted on Friday.

2. On November 15, according to the Federal Reserve's interest rate observer, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is 39.8%.

ETF

According to statistics, during the period from November 10 to November 14, there was a net outflow of $1.111 billion from the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF; as of November 14, a total of $24.638 billion had flowed out of GBTC (Grayscale), with current holdings of $16.091 billion, and IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $75.162 billion. The total market value of the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF is $126.787 billion.

Net outflow of Ethereum spot ETF in the US: $72,900.

Envision the future

Event Preview

1. Devconnect will be held from November 17 to 22, 2025, in Buenos Aires, Argentina. This important technology event will bring together key participants in the Ethereum ecosystem. During the event, Ethereum builders, educators, and protocol teams will collaborate to drive innovation and development in blockchain technology through practical courses, in-depth technical lectures, and community-led workshops.

2. Bitcoin MENA will be held at the Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Centre (ADNEC) from December 8 to 9.

3. Solana Breakpoint 2025 will be held from December 11 to 13 in Abu Dhabi.

Project Progress

1. Berachain plans to launch a claims page for Balancer v2 / BEX vulnerability victims before November 16 and conduct a fork to unlock the BEX contract at the virtual machine level.

2. WLFI financial strategy listed company ALT5 Sigma's new financial report will be released on November 18.

3. The Capx AI airdrop window for the AI agency project will close on November 20 at 7:59.

Important events

1. On November 18 at 8:30, the Reserve Bank of Australia will release the minutes of the November monetary policy meeting;

2. On November 20 at 21:30, the United States will announce the initial jobless claims for the week ending November 15, totaling ( million.

3. On November 20 at 03:00, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the monetary policy meeting;

4. On November 21 at 23:00, the University of Michigan will release the final consumer confidence index for November.

Token Unlock

1. Melania Meme (MELANIA) will unlock 26.25 million tokens on November 18, valued at approximately $3.74 million, accounting for 5.04% of the circulating supply;

2. LayerZero (ZRO) will unlock 26.72 million tokens on November 20, valued at approximately $38.05 million, accounting for 7.29% of the circulating supply;

3. KAITO (KAITO) will unlock 8.35 million tokens on November 20, valued at approximately $6.46 million, accounting for 2.97% of the circulating supply;

4. SOON (SOON) will unlock 15.21 million tokens on November 23, worth approximately $29.51 million, accounting for 4.33% of the circulating supply.

About Us

Hotcoin Research, as the core research institution of the Hotcoin exchange, is dedicated to transforming professional analysis into your practical weapon. Through “Weekly Insights” and “In-depth Research Reports,” we analyze market trends for you; leveraging our exclusive column “Hotcoin Selection” (AI + expert dual screening), we identify potential assets and reduce trial and error costs. Every week, our researchers will also interact with you face-to-face through live broadcasts, interpreting hotspots and predicting trends. We believe that warm companionship and professional guidance can help more investors navigate through cycles and seize the value opportunities of Web3.

Risk Warning

The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investing carries risks. We strongly advise investors to make investments based on a full understanding of these risks and within a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of their funds.

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