Original Title: “MicroStrategy Faces a Confidence Test: Nasdaq Delisting Risk, Coin Selling Repurchase Motive, Executives Selling”
Original author: Nancy
Original source:
Reprint: Mars Finance
The crypto market is in turmoil, with Bitcoin's weakness dragging down the overall sentiment, accelerating the clearing of bubbles, leaving investors walking on thin ice. As one of the important indicators in the crypto space, the leading DAT (Crypto Treasury) company Strategy (MicroStrategy) is facing multiple pressures, including a significant contraction in mNAV premium, weakened coin accumulation efforts, executives selling stocks, and the risk of index delisting, putting market confidence to a severe test.
Strategy faces a trust crisis, or is it at risk of being delisted from the index?
Currently, the DAT sector is facing its darkest hour. As the price of Bitcoin continues to decline, the premium rates of multiple DAT companies have significantly dropped across the board, stock prices remain under pressure, and the behavior of increasing holdings has slowed down or even come to a standstill, putting their business models to the test for survival. Strategy is no exception, falling into a crisis of trust.
mNAV (Market Net Asset Value) is one of the important indicators for measuring market sentiment. Recently, the mNAV premium of Strategy has rapidly contracted, once approaching the brink of collapse. According to StrategyTracker data, as of November 21, the mNAV of Strategy was 1.2, having even fallen below 1 previously, which represents a decline of approximately 54.9% compared to its historical peak of 2.66. As the largest and most influential DAT company, the failure of the Strategy treasury premium has triggered panic in the market. The underlying reason is that the decline in mNAV has weakened its financing ability, forcing the company to issue stocks that dilute the equity of existing shareholders, putting pressure on the stock price, which further leads to a decline in mNAV, creating a vicious cycle.
However, NYDIG's global research director Greg Cipolaro pointed out that mNAV has limitations as a metric for evaluating DAT companies and should even be removed from industry reports. He believes that mNAV can be misleading because its calculation does not take into account the company's operational business or other potential assets and liabilities, and is typically based on assumed circulating shares, not covering unconverted convertible debt.
The poor performance of the stock price has also raised concerns in the market. StrategyTracker data shows that as of November 21, the total market value of Strategy's MSTR stock is approximately $50.9 billion, which is lower than the total market value of nearly 650,000 Bitcoins held (with an average holding cost of $74,433) at $66.87 billion, indicating that the company's stock price has experienced a “negative premium.” Since the beginning of this year, the MSTR stock price has fallen by 40.9%.
This situation has raised concerns in the market about the delisting of indices such as the Nasdaq 100 and MSCI USA. JPMorgan predicts that if the global financial index company MSCI removes Strategy from its stock indices, the related capital outflow could reach up to $2.8 billion; if other exchanges and index compilers follow suit, the total outflow could reach up to $11.6 billion. Currently, MSCI is evaluating a proposal to exclude companies whose primary business is to hold Bitcoin or other crypto assets, and where such assets account for more than 50% of their balance sheet, and will make a final decision by January 15, 2026.
However, at present, the risk of Strategy being eliminated is relatively small. For example, the Nasdaq 100 Index conducts a market capitalization adjustment on the second Friday of December each year, retaining the top 100, while those ranked 101–125 must have been in the top 100 the previous year to be retained, and those exceeding 125 are unconditionally eliminated. Strategy is still within a safe range, with a market capitalization ranking within the Top 100, and recent financial reports indicate solid fundamentals. In addition, several institutional investors, including the Arizona State Retirement System, Renaissance Technologies, the Florida State Pension Fund, the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, Swedbank, and the Swiss National Bank, have disclosed holdings of MSTR stock in their Q3 reports, which also supports market confidence to some extent.
Recently, the pace of Strategy's accumulation has noticeably slowed, interpreted by the market as a lack of “bullets,” especially as the third quarter financial report shows that its cash and cash equivalents amount to only $54.3 million. Since entering November, Strategy has accumulated a total of 9,062 bitcoins, far lower than the 79,000 bitcoins accumulated during the same period last year, which of course is also affected by the rise in bitcoin prices. Notably, this month's accumulation mainly comes from last week's latest purchase of 8,178 BTC, while other transactions usually involve hundreds of bitcoins.
To supplement its funds, Strategy began seeking international market financing and launched a new financing tool, perpetual preferred shares (which require high dividends, 8-10%). Recently, the company raised approximately $710 million by issuing its first euro-denominated perpetual preferred share, STRE, to support its strategic layout and Bitcoin reserve plan. It is worth mentioning that as of now, the company has six outstanding convertible bonds, with maturity dates between September 2027 and June 2032.
In addition, the movements of internal executives have also attracted market attention. Strategy disclosed in its financial report that Strategy's Executive Vice President, Shao Weiming, will leave on December 31, 2025, and he has sold MSTR shares worth $19.69 million through five transactions since September of this year. However, these sell actions were conducted according to a pre-arranged 10b5-1 trading plan. According to U.S. SEC rules, the 10b5-1 trading plan allows company insiders to trade stocks under pre-set buying and selling rules (which must specify quantity, price, or timeline) to reduce the legal risks of insider trading.
Many analysts believe that the debt risk is exaggerated, putting significant pressure on high-premium investors.
In the face of the sluggish sentiment in the crypto market and multiple concerns about the DAT business model, Strategy founder Michael Saylor reiterated the “HODL” philosophy in a post, expressing optimism about the recent decline in Bitcoin prices and maintaining a bullish outlook for the future. He even emphasized that unless Bitcoin falls below $10,000, Strategy's holdings will not be sold, in order to boost market confidence.
At the same time, the market has analyzed Strategy from multiple angles. Matrixport pointed out that Strategy remains one of the most representative beneficiaries in this round of the Bitcoin bull market. The market has previously been concerned about whether the company would be forced to sell its held Bitcoins to repay debts in the future. From the current asset-liability structure and debt maturity distribution, it is judged that the probability of “being forced to sell Bitcoins for debt repayment” occurring in the short term is relatively low and is not the main source of current risk. The investors who are currently under the most pressure are those who bought in at high prices during the high premium phase. Most of Strategy's financing occurred when the stock price was close to the historical high of 474 dollars and the net asset value per share was at its peak, with (NAV). As the NAV gradually declines and the premium compresses, the stock price has also pulled back from 474 dollars to 207 dollars, resulting in significant floating losses for investors who entered the market in the high premium range. Referring to the rise in Bitcoin this round, Strategy's current stock price has significantly pulled back compared to previous highs, making the valuation relatively more attractive, and the expectation of being included in the S&P 500 index in December still exists.
Crypto analyst Willy Woo further analyzed the debt risk of Strategy and expressed “high skepticism” about its liquidation during a bear market. In a tweet, he stated that currently, Strategy's debt is mainly composed of convertible preferred notes, which can be repaid in cash, common stock, or a combination of both for the maturing convertible debt. Among them, Strategy has approximately $1.01 billion in debt that will mature on September 15, 2027. Woo estimates that to avoid needing to sell Bitcoin to repay the debt, the stock trading price of Strategy must be above $183.19, roughly equivalent to a Bitcoin price of around $91,502.
Ki Young Ju, the founder and CEO of CryptoQuant, also believes that the bankruptcy probability of Strategy is extremely low. He stated, “MSTR is only likely to go bankrupt if an asteroid collides with Earth. Saylor will never sell Bitcoin unless shareholders demand it, and he has publicly emphasized this point multiple times.”
Ki Young Ju pointed out that even if Saylor sells just one Bitcoin, it will shake MSTR's core identity as a “Bitcoin treasury company,” triggering a dual death spiral for both Bitcoin and MSTR's stock price. Therefore, MSTR's shareholders not only hope that the value of Bitcoin remains strong, but also expect Saylor to continue employing various liquidity strategies to allow MSTR to rise together with the price of Bitcoin.
In response to market concerns about debt risks, he further explained that most of Strategy's debt consists of convertible bonds, and the fact that the conversion price has not been reached does not imply liquidation risk. It simply means that the bonds need to be repaid in cash, and MSTR has various ways to handle the upcoming debt maturity, including refinancing, issuing new bonds, obtaining secured loans, or using operating cash flow. Failure to convert does not trigger bankruptcy; it is just a normal situation of debt maturity and unrelated to liquidation. While this does not mean that MSTR's stock price will remain high forever, the notion that they would sell Bitcoin to boost stock prices or would go bankrupt as a result is completely absurd. Even if Bitcoin drops to $10,000, Strategy would not go bankrupt; the worst-case scenario would simply involve a debt restructuring. Additionally, MSTR could also choose to raise cash by using Bitcoin as collateral, though this would carry potential liquidation risks, thus it would be a last resort.
