ETH whales uneasy as onchain, derivatives data reduce chance for rally to $4K

Key takeaways:

• ETH derivatives exhibit a fading bullish appetite as Ethereum’s TVL declines and network fees decrease, reinforcing persistent risk aversion.
• US job layoffs climb, and seasonal hiring weakens, leaving traders waiting for fresh liquidity before rebuilding confidence in ETH’s near-term upside.

Ether (ETH) has climbed 15% from its $2,623 low made last Friday, yet derivatives metrics show traders remain cautious. The absence of bullish leverage from top ETH traders, combined with falling Ethereum network fees, weakens the case for sustained upside. As a result, traders question what must shift for ETH to convincingly reclaim the $4,000 mark.

ETH perpetual futures annualized funding rate. Source: laevitas.chDemand for leveraged bullish ETH positions has been virtually absent since Monday, as indicated by the perpetual futures funding rate. Under normal conditions, this rate should sit between 6% and 12% to offset capital costs. Still, a meaningful portion of the current hesitation stems from uncertainty following the October flash crash.

The 20% Ether price plunge on Oct. 10 sparked widespread liquidations across centralized and decentralized venues, dealing a major blow to trader confidence. total value locked (TVL) on the Ethereum network slid to $72.3 billion from $99.8 billion on Oct. 9, according to DefiLlama data. This contraction in deposits adds pressure to ETH’s price outlook, as investors brace for softer demand.

Blockchains ranked by 7-day network fees, USD. Source: NansenEthereum network fees dropped 13% over the past week, even though transaction counts held steady. That divergence has investors worried about a negative feedback loop tied to shrinking network deposits, which could ultimately produce an inflationary tilt for ETH. After all, Ethereum’s burn mechanism relies entirely on sustained onchain activity.

ETH top traders’ long-to-short ratio at OKX. Source: CoinGlassWhen aggregating spot, futures and margin positions, top traders at OKX have trimmed their bullish exposure to ETH. The long-to-short ratio now shows a 23% tilt toward bearish positions. More importantly, whales and market makers have repeatedly failed to maintain meaningful bullish leverage, signaling a clear lack of conviction.

Ether traders await clarity as weak US labor data erodes confidence

Another driver of traders’ unease is the weakening US job market. Some companies have cited rising operating costs, while consumer spending dropped following the US government shutdown that lasted until Nov. 12, according to Yahoo Finance. Reuters reported that US-based firms have announced more than 25,000 job cuts in November

Adam Sarhan, chief executive of 50 Park Investments in New York, reportedly said: “You don’t have mass layoffs when the economy is strong.” If layoffs accelerate, they could further dent consumer confidence and weigh on risk assets, including Ether

US federal government surplus or deficit, USD. Source: Federal ReserveThe US government must keep expanding debt to sustain growth because slowing revenues and rising costs outpace economic momentum, while large-scale artificial intelligence infrastructure spending takes years to deliver productivity gains or meaningful returns to the broader economy. Large deficits favor alternative investments, which could be a potential trigger for Ether’s price.

While the soft labor backdrop hurts market sentiment, a weaker economy could also nudge the US Federal Reserve toward a more accommodative stance. Moreover, the risk-off environment eased after the reversion of the slowdown in economic activity triggered by the United States government shutdown that lasted until Nov. 12

Historically, cryptocurrencies have benefited from such conditions; however, the current lack of clarity in the US employment picture continues to erode trader confidence. It remains unclear whether Ether can reclaim $4,000 before fresh liquidity injections from major central banks arrive to support global growth

For now, investors appear more focused on tech equities and bond markets, leaving limited room for a short-term upside move in ETH.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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