Written by: TechFlow
As the year draws to a close, it’s expected that major institutions’ 2026 crypto forecasts and outlooks will be released one after another over the next month.
But before looking at new predictions, it’s worth revisiting what these institutions said last year; after all, anyone can make forecasts—accuracy is what really matters.
Looking back to the end of 2024, market sentiment was high, BTC had just broken through $100,000, and predictions were generally optimistic:
For example, BTC would hit $200,000, the stablecoin market would double in size, AI agents would spark on-chain activity, and crypto unicorns would flock to IPOs… a year later, have those predictions come true?
We’ve selected some representative views from last year’s various prediction reports, to see whose forecasts were more accurate.
- VanEck: Accuracy Rate 10%, Only Got Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Right
At the end of 2024, VanEck gave 10 predictions, of which only the Bitcoin strategic reserve was accurate.
The other 9 missed entirely, and most weren’t just slight misses, but off by orders of magnitude. For example, they predicted crypto would peak in Q1 with Bitcoin reaching $180k and hitting new highs at year-end; in reality, the timing and price were completely opposite.
They were also overly optimistic about market size. Tokenized securities were predicted to reach $500 billion, actual was about $30-35 billion; DeFi TVL was predicted at $2000 billion, actual was about $120-130 billion; NFT trading volume was predicted at $300 billion, actual estimate is $5-6.5 billion.
Overall, VanEck’s policy direction was quite accurate, but they systematically overestimated on-chain economy size.
Related reading: VanEck 2025 Crypto Top 10 Predictions: Bull Market to Hit New Highs Next Year, US to Further Support Bitcoin With Strategic Reserve Policy
- Bitwise: Accuracy Rate 50%, Got the Big Picture But Missed Price Targets
Bitwise gave 10 predictions, 5 of which were accurate, mainly focusing on regulation and institutional adoption; price and size predictions were also systematically overestimated.
Policy and institutional adoption were spot-on. Coinbase and MicroStrategy joined US stock indices as predicted; it was indeed a year of crypto IPOs, with several companies going public; the number of countries holding BTC increased from 9 to nearly 30.
Price targets all missed: BTC, ETH, and SOL price predictions were much higher than actual performance. Coinbase stock at $250 missed the $700 target by 65%. RWA tokenization was estimated at $50 billion, which was clearly an overestimate.
Overall, Bitwise had a keen sense for policy and regulatory shifts and the pace of institutional adoption.
Related reading: Bitwise 2025 Top 10 Crypto Predictions
- Coinbase: Nearly 100% Accuracy, Only Predicted Directions, Not Prices
Coinbase’s predictions were divided into “macro” and “disruptive” categories, mostly directional judgments rather than precise numbers, making them forward-looking in terms of trends.
Some core, verifiable predictions:
Other predictions were generally correct but hard to quantify:
You can see that Coinbase clearly avoided specific price targets, focusing on policy turning points and industry trends. As a result, all their core predictions hit the mark.
All regulatory shift predictions were validated: forecasting the “most crypto-friendly Congress in history” bringing benefits, more asset ETFs getting approved; reality matched these.
Stablecoins and DeFi were directionally correct: predicting “explosive growth and expansion of stablecoins into commercial payments”; indeed, this year Mastercard announced support for USDC/PYUSD/USDG in June, Coinbase’s own payment platform integrated with Shopify, and Stripe launched USDC subscription payments.
They predicted a DeFi recovery, which came true as DeFi TVL reached $120 billion, its highest since May 2022.
This “only predict direction, not price” strategy may not be sensational, but in hindsight it’s the most robust and least likely to backfire.
Related reading: Coinbase 2025 Outlook: New Tech, New Landscape, New Opportunities, Crypto Market to See Transformative Growth
- Galaxy Research: Accuracy Rate 26%, Almost All Data Predictions Missed
Galaxy’s researchers made a total of 23 predictions, the most quantifiable and numerous among all institutions.
Looking back, the policy prediction team performed excellently (( 100% hit rate), but almost all price and market size predictions missed. Especially the prediction that DOGE would break $1—clearly far too optimistic.
Additionally, Galaxy did well in ecosystem development predictions. For example, they predicted that most mining companies would pivot to AI and high-performance computing, which indeed became a notable trend amid this year’s AI boom.
When predictions are numerous and granular, even professional research institutions can’t get everything right; the market simply doesn’t move the way people expect.
Related reading: Galaxy Research 2025 Predictions: Bitcoin to Hit $185k, Ethereum to Break $5,500
- Hashkey: Accuracy Rate 70%, Price Predictions Overly Optimistic
HashKey’s predictions were generally precise regarding regulatory and compliance progress (ETF, stablecoin legislation) and ecosystem shifts (rise of DEX, L2 differentiation), but they remained overly optimistic about price cycles.
Interestingly, these predictions also reflected sentiment in the crypto community at the time.
After HashKey Group released its Top 10 Market Predictions for 2025, nearly 50,000 community users voted on 16 popular forecasts summarized by HashKey researchers, analysts, and traders;
Results showed that 50% of voters favored the prediction: “Bitcoin breaks $300k, Ethereum over $8,000, total crypto market cap reaches $10 trillion.”
Yet the most popular prediction at the time is, from the current year-end perspective, the least likely to come true.
Related reading: HashKey Group 2025 Top 10 Market Predictions: USD Stablecoin Market Cap to Exceed $300 Billion, Bitcoin to Break $300k
- Delphi Digital: Accuracy Rate 40%, Consumer DeFi Prediction Is a Highlight
Delphi Digital’s predictions were relatively accurate regarding technical infrastructure and consumer applications; their exact words on consumer apps:
“2025 will be a key milestone for consumer DeFi, with more crypto users fully embracing on-chain financial services.”
This year, we have indeed seen the emergence of various U cards and tokenized US stocks; in addition, traditional financial apps like Robinhood are gradually embracing on-chain.
Related reading: Delphi Digital 2025 Top 10 Predictions: BTC to Rise Further, AI Agents May Become Top VC
- Messari: Accuracy Rate 55%, No Specific Price Targets
Although Messari is a data analytics platform, their predictions leaned towards “trend direction” rather than “specific numbers.” In retrospect, their big-picture judgment was relatively accurate.
- Framework Co-founder: Accuracy Rate 25%, Gave More Confidence to Their Portfolio Projects
Next, we selected some representative personal predictions from last year to see how they fared.
First is Framework co-founder Vance Spencer’s predictions—we selected the crypto-related ones:
It’s clear that Vance set high expectations for their own portfolio projects such as Glow, Daylight, Berachain, representing the energy and blockchain sectors respectively.
Some quantitative targets were overly aggressive, such as $1 billion daily inflows to ETH ETF.
Related reading: Framework Co-founder 2025 Predictions: Fed to Continue Rate Cuts, ETH ETF Inflows to Persist
- Blockworks Co-founder: Accuracy Rate 48%, Most Predictions Made
Blockworks co-founder Mippo (X: @MikeIppolito_) made the most predictions among all institutions and individuals we reviewed, but his accuracy rate was decent—almost half were correct.
The highlight was a spot-on prediction about the rise of Robinhood, and he also nailed L1 investment opportunities such as Hyperliquid and SUI, both of whose tokens performed well this year.
Related reading: Blockworks Co-founder’s 27 Predictions for 2025: US to Become Crypto Hub, Base to Be Solana’s Main Rival
- Alliance DAO Wang Qiao & Imran: Accuracy Rate 50%, Overly Optimistic on BTC Price
Alliance DAO co-founders Wang Qiao and Imran also made predictions for 2025’s development on a podcast.
Related reading: Alliance DAO 2024 Crypto Market Review & 2025 Outlook: $250k Bitcoin Is Market Consensus
We’ve compiled their crypto-related views as follows:
It’s clear the two founders were overly optimistic about BTC’s performance—even their lowest target of $150k is still far from this year’s BTC high.
However, their predictions about the prediction market were very accurate, spotting a key trend a year in advance.
Summary
Looking at last year’s predictions, several patterns are clear:
The number of predictions is inversely related to accuracy—the more you say, the more you get wrong.
Trying to predict specific price points and numbers rarely works out.
Policy forecasts are highly reliable; improvements in the regulatory environment and the US becoming more crypto-friendly were accurately predicted by almost all institutions and individuals.
In the end, the author believes these annual institutional predictions are valuable not for “telling you what to buy,” but for “showing you what the industry is thinking.” We can view these forecasts as sentiment indicators for the industry; if you use them as an investment guide, you might end up disappointed.
Also, keep a good habit: treat any prediction with specific numbers skeptically, no matter which KOL, institution, or industry leader it comes from.
This isn’t to say we should criticize these industry leaders—wrong predictions have value too.
They tell us what the market once believed, and remind us that no one can predict the future.
