Analysis of the altcoin season shows that altcoins appear to be closer to their bottom than their peak. This is the main message from the latest macro signals, and the charts also confirm this.
The Russell 2000 Index (IWM) has just recorded its strongest monthly close ever and is now approaching the upper end of its long-term range, nearing the highs of 2025. This is significant because this index often reflects liquidity fluctuations in the US.
Altcoin season accelerates as Russell 2000 hits record highs
When small-cap stocks break major resistance, it usually signals increased risk appetite. In previous market cycles, similar market activity pushed Bitcoin higher, with altcoin rallies typically following.
A similar scenario played out in 2007, 2015, 2018, and 2021. Once again, the Russell 2000 is retesting its peak, while Bitcoin and the broader altcoin group continue to trade below their all-time highs.
Altcoin season analysis | Source: Bull TheoryHistory shows this gap often leads to strong expansions for altcoins.
Bitcoin’s long-term uptrend supports a mid-cycle rally
Bitcoin’s long-term trend from the 2022 bottom is still intact, which also reinforces optimism for the altcoin season. Despite some corrections on the daily chart and the loss of a few short-term EMAs, the long-term structure remains bullish.
Price action resembles a mid-cycle dip rather than the start of a full-blown bear market. BTC is also showing signs of resynchronizing with the stock market after months of divergence. This is another positive signal.
When Bitcoin moves in tandem with other risk assets rather than in opposition, it often signals a more favorable environment for trend continuation. Bitcoin has never entered a prolonged bear market at the same time US small-cap stocks are making new highs.
In every major downturn—2014, 2018, and 2022—the Russell 2000 reversed sharply lower before Bitcoin started to weaken. That is not happening now.
Macro factors support an extended bull cycle for BTC and altcoins through 2026
The macro picture is also shifting in a way that typically supports Bitcoin and altcoin growth. The Fed has started cutting interest rates, easing pressure on risk assets after the tough periods of 2022 and 2023.
Many major banks now believe policy could shift to a lighter version of QE in 2026 as government funding needs increase.
In Washington, fiscal discussions are once again turning toward stimulus ideas—from tax adjustments to tariff-related payments.
Nothing is set in stone yet, but policymakers’ attitudes have clearly changed, and markets often recognize this well before any official change occurs. That’s why many analysts now lean toward a cycle peak in 2026 instead of 2025.
When you combine these expectations with the Russell 2000’s strongest monthly close ever and Bitcoin’s preserved long-term trend, the message is clear: liquidity appears to be improving, not tightening.
That’s why Bitcoin and the broader altcoin market are not trading like assets about to enter a deep bear market.
Instead, the current structure resembles an extended cycle, where both BTC and altcoins still have room to reach new highs if the current environment holds. Under these conditions, a runway into 2026 is becoming increasingly realistic.
Ong Giao
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