Bitcoin Faces Risk of Falling to $75,000 as ETF Inflows Slow and Institutional Demand Weakens

Bitcoin has rebounded from its November lows, but its recent rise looks fragile. Both on-chain signals and technical patterns point to a scenario that could push the price significantly lower — potentially toward $75,000, analysts warn.

Technical Indicators Suggest the Rally May Not Hold After bottoming at $80,637 in November, Bitcoin climbed roughly 13%. Some experts, however, believe the current move resembles a dead-cat bounce — a short-lived recovery during a broader bearish trend. On the daily chart, BTC was rejected at the 50-day EMA, a key resistance level. The price also remains below the Supertrend indicator, showing that bullish momentum has not been confirmed. The biggest warning comes from a clear bear flag pattern. Historically, this formation often precedes a strong downward breakout. BTC has already completed the “flagpole” phase and is now moving inside the flag — which appears close to its conclusion.

A breakdown could drag the price first toward $87,500, a key reaction level identified by the Murrey Math system. If Bitcoin loses this barrier, the market could quickly retest the November low at $80,637. In a deeper bearish scenario, selling pressure may push BTC to $75,000, a target that analyst Ted Pilows previously identified as a potential spring low. This bearish outlook becomes invalid only if BTC manages to close firmly above $100,000, which would reopen the path toward a sustainable recovery.

Institutional Demand Has Largely Dried Up Beyond technical concerns, the market is facing another problem: weakening institutional interest. Although spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen $237 million in inflows this year, the momentum has slowed dramatically. Since November, these funds have actually lost more than $3 billion, a sharp reversal from earlier months when inflows were accelerating. Corporate interest in Bitcoin is also fading. According to CryptoQuant, only 9 companies reported adding BTC to their holdings this quarter — a steep decline from 53 companies in Q3, a drop of 83%. While a few exceptions stand out (such as Strategy and American Bitcoin with recent large purchases), many firms have paused accumulation. There are growing concerns that some companies may soon begin selling, as their net asset values decline or as they need liquidity to repay obligations.

Summary: The Market Is at a Crossroads Bitcoin is facing a sensitive moment: Technical indicators lean toward further downsideInstitutional demand is weakeningETF inflows have slowed and turned negativeMarket sentiment is pressured by profit-taking and fears of forced selling Unless BTC regains the $100,000 resistance level, the path toward $75,000 may become increasingly likely.

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