After topping in the $120,000-$125,000 zone earlier in October 2025 and then sliding into the mid-$80,000s, Bitcoin is near $87,700 on the daily chart, and the setup looks like an easy excuse to lock in profits and start the year fresh.
That is where the history problem starts. Across the monthly return heat map, January posts an average gain of +9.76% and a median of +9.54%. February is also positive on average at +14.3%, while March’s median flips negative at -2.19%, showing that early-year strength exists, but it is uneven.
Yes, January is not always green for BTC. It delivered -32.1% in 2015, -28.1% in 2018 and -16.9% in 2022, so the warning is not “January always pumps,” it is “January often punishes sellers who expected an easy exit.”
The year-end mix adds context: November averages +36.6%, but December’s median is -2.68%, meaning many late-year exits happen into noise.
Why not?
The “do not sell into January” case is less about superstition and more about positioning. End-of-year selling often happens for practical reasons, and when that supply is done, price can rebound fast on lighter resistance.
In recent years, January printed +39.9% in 2023 and +29.6% in 2020. Even 2025 opened with a +9.54% January before latecomers spoiled the party.
None of this guarantees a rally. But if BTC enters January already down from its 2025 peak and sitting below the psychological $90,000 line, history says the bigger risk may be selling too late, not too early.
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Related Articles
BTC breaks through 74,000 USDT, intraday gains of 1.65%
Gate News: On March 16, Bitcoin price broke through 74000 USDT, now trading at 74011.11 USDT, with a daily gain of 1.65%.
GateNews2m ago
BTC breaks through $74,000, 24-hour gain of 3.61%
Gate News reports that on March 16, according to Gate market data, BTC/USDT is now trading at $74,001.9, with a 24-hour increase of 3.61%.
GateNews2m ago
Coinbase's $69.5 Billion Internal Bitcoin Transfer Highlights Limitations of On-Chain Age Metrics
Coinbase executed an internal wallet migration on November 22, 2025, moving approximately 800,000 Bitcoin worth $69.5 billion—representing roughly 4% of Bitcoin's circulating supply—from legacy wallets to new internal addresses as part of a routine security procedure.
CryptopulseElite4m ago
BTC Breaks Through 74,000 USDT
Gate News bot message: Gate market data shows BTC breaking through 74000 USDT, current price 74008.7 USDT.
CryptoRadar5m ago
Bitcoin spot ETF experienced a net inflow of $767 million last week, while BlackRock's IBIT recorded weekly net inflows of $601 million.
According to SoSoValue data, from March 9-13, Bitcoin spot ETF net inflows reached $767 million, marking three consecutive weeks of increases. BlackRock's ETF IBIT saw net inflows of $601 million, Fidelity's ETF FBTC received $148 million in net inflows, while Grayscale's Bitcoin Trust GBTC experienced outflows of $25.8498 million. As of press time, total net assets reached $9.183 billion, with cumulative net inflows of $5.614 billion.
GateNews22m ago
Santiment: Large Bitcoin Wallets Resume Accumulation, Fear and Greed Index May Diverge from ETF Inflows
According to data from on-chain analytics firm Santiment, as Bitcoin's price stabilizes near $71,000, large address holders now control approximately 68.17% of circulating supply, demonstrating an accumulation trend. Bitcoin reserves on exchanges have also fallen to eight-year lows, indicating that holders are more inclined toward long-term storage rather than selling. Despite the market's fear index remaining elevated, the renewed accumulation by large holders may signal a potential price rebound and provide structural support to the market.
MarketWhisper31m ago
