2025 Year-End Inventory and Forecast Review: The Moment for the Big Shots to "Face-Slap"?

The Christmas bells of 2025 have already rung, but for cryptocurrency investors, this year’s Santa’s gift bag seems to contain something different. In stark contrast to the traditional stock market (S&P 500), which has seen strong year-end rallies and new highs, Bitcoin (BTC) has shown noticeable weakness and divergence during the 2025 Christmas period. As the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market cap, Bitcoin closed at around $87,800 on Christmas Day 2025. Against the backdrop of light trading volume and overall market caution, it only rose slightly by 0.75%. Bitcoin’s price fluctuated within a narrow range of $85,000 to $90,000, reflecting low market volatility. Investors reduced risk before the year-end, with spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs experiencing hundreds of millions of dollars in outflows on December 24 alone. This performance marks the end of a challenging year for Bitcoin. Although the price once surged to a record high of $126,198 in October, it has since fallen by about 7% from the nearly $92,000 level on January 1. While Bitcoin’s price remains high compared to its cycle lows, the “Santa Rally” has not materialized as expected. Instead, the market is digesting a correction after reaching a historic high of around $120,000 in October. As of December 25, Bitcoin’s trading price hovered between $87,000 and $96,000, slightly down from last year’s same period (Christmas 2024 at $99,000), marking a rare “cooling period” in the market. 2025 Christmas Market Analysis: From “Euphoria” to “Pragmatism” The 2025 crypto market exhibits an extreme “binary opposition” structure, especially evident during Christmas:

1. Bitcoin’s “Year-End Fatigue”: Bitcoin briefly broke through the $120,000 mark in October, sparking a short-lived celebration. However, the subsequent “October Flash Crash” and liquidity tightening at year-end pushed the price back below $90,000. Compared to Christmas 2024 at $98,000–$99,000, the 2025 Christmas price is actually down YoY. This breaks the stereotype that “the second year after halving must be a bull market.”
2. Infrastructure and Tokens Parting Ways: Despite the sluggish price, mining stocks combined with AI (such as IREN, Cipher, BitMine) strengthened against the trend at year-end. Market funds are voting with their feet: investors prefer cash-flow-generating “shovel stocks” over purely speculative “tokens.” Historical Christmas: Where does 2025 stand? Bitcoin’s performance on Christmas Day has historically been mixed, often influenced by year-end tax planning, declining liquidity, and post-halving cycles. Historical data shows no consistent “Christmas rally” pattern. Although in the past ten years, Bitcoin has risen around Christmas in eight of those years, with gains ranging from 0.33% to 10.86%, overall, there has been no clear “Christmas rally.” However, Bitcoin’s performance often foreshadows the tone of the following year. The trend in 2025 bears a striking resemblance to 2017 and 2021. Christmas 2025 is not a crash but a “high-level consolidation.” Unlike 2017 and 2021, there was no panic selling this time; instead, institutions are adjusting their balance sheets at year-end, shifting funds from high-volatility crypto assets to AI and US tech giants. It is worth noting that halving years (2016, 2020, 2024) often predict strong Christmas rallies. With the rise of mining reward halving and scarcity concepts, Bitcoin’s average annual increase exceeds 100%. In contrast, 2025 is the worst Q4 performance in seven years for Bitcoin, with a 22.54% decline in December alone. This year, Bitcoin’s price has fallen 12% from the $99,299 high at Christmas 2024, highlighting a cooling cycle, and the Fear & Greed Index has reached 27, indicating retail investors are in “extreme panic.” The “Facepalm” Moment: Industry Predictions vs. Reality From late 2024 to early 2025, industry leaders, Wall Street analysts, and crypto KOLs made highly optimistic predictions for Bitcoin’s price by the end of 2025, relying on regulatory tailwinds like SEC reforms, Fed rate cuts, and institutional inflows. However, Bitcoin ultimately closed near $87,000, making most predictions overly optimistic and highlighting the risks of extrapolating in a volatile market. Current market conditions show most forecasts missed the mark; analysts generally underestimated the “siphon effect.” In 2025, breakthroughs in AI technology diverted hot money that would have gone into blockchain. When NVIDIA and AI infrastructure stocks can deliver annual returns of 50%-100%, Bitcoin’s appeal as a “high beta tech stock” diminishes significantly. Christmas 2025 did not see Bitcoin reach $200,000 as many bullish enthusiasts hoped, nor did it crash to zero as bears predicted. We are in an awkward but real “middle ground”: around $90,000. A figure that reassures conservatives but disappoints enthusiasts. Extreme optimists like venture capital pioneer Tim Draper, PlanB (S2F), Tom Lee, Robert Kiyosaki, Cathie Wood, Bernstein, and Geoff Kendrick (Head of Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered) have all predicted Bitcoin could surpass $150,000 in 2025, but they collectively missed the mark, indicating overly high expectations. They assumed ETF inflows and halving effects would linearly compound, but they underestimated the siphon effect of AI capital and macroeconomic stagflation pressures. Why did most people get it wrong? Perhaps because “Wall Street uses old maps to find new continents.” Most prediction models (like S2F, Gold Market Cap Ratio) are based on the assumption that “Bitcoin is the only savings pool.” However, the reality of 2025 is that AI is the new savings pool. Funds haven’t disappeared; they have shifted from “virtual currencies” to “physical computing power.” What should we expect in 2026? The calm trend during Christmas 2025 sends a clear signal: the “narrative era” of cryptocurrencies is ending, and the “fundamental” era has arrived.
3. Diminishing returns: Bitcoin is no longer the asset that can easily multiply tenfold. It is becoming a mature “digital gold” linked to macroeconomics. This means reduced volatility and lower excess returns.
4. ETFs are a double-edged sword: While spot ETFs bring in capital, they also lock Bitcoin’s price to Wall Street trading hours and macro logic. During Christmas, when US stock markets are closed or thinly traded, Bitcoin also loses the independence of its own market.
5. Seeking new growth points: The winners in 2025 are not hoarders but builders. Stocks of companies transforming into AI computing power, like BitMine and IREN, soared, proving that the market craves “computing power” rather than just “hash rate.” This Christmas, Bitcoin did not bring investors a surprising red envelope but instead offered a cool health check report. For 2026, should investors abandon the linear wealth fantasies of the “S2F model” and focus on real-world applications that deeply integrate blockchain technology with AI and energy industries? Bitcoin remains king, but the king’s pace has become steady—甚至有些缓慢。