PlanB pointed out that when Bitcoin last decoupled from the stock market and gold, BTC subsequently surged nearly 10 times within two years.
(Background: Bitcoin frenzy, altcoins buried: a two-year bull market review, why are your assets shrinking?)
(Additional context: The four-year cycle of Bitcoin is dead! Bitwise Chief Investment Officer: The crypto market has entered a ten-year endurance battle.)
Currently, cryptocurrencies are showing a rare divergence from traditional financial markets. Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen over 30% from its October high; however, US stocks and gold continue to hit new all-time highs. According to TradeAlgo, this is the first time since 2014 that Bitcoin’s annual return direction has been opposite to that of US stocks.
Has history ever triggered a 10x surge?
Against this backdrop, analyst PlanB, known for proposing the Bitcoin S2F model, posted that early data shows a similar decoupling around 2015, after which BTC surged nearly 10 times within two years.
Although history does not guarantee the future, investors are highly focused on the potential signals of “trend reversal after divergence.”
Bitcoin ($87,500) is currently (pink dot) way off its historic correlation with stocks ($6900) and gold ($4500). This happened before, when BTC was below $1k, and resulted in a 10x pump. But correlation could also be broken, and then this time will be different. Time will tell… pic.twitter.com/3JwLkgUydB
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) December 27, 2025
Is Bitcoin just experiencing a normal correction?
In response to Bitcoin’s decoupling from financial markets, Stephane Ouellette, CEO of Toronto-based FRNT Financial, also believes that Bitcoin is merely pulling back after outperforming other markets in the early stages: over the past two years, Bitcoin’s performance has far exceeded the S&P 500 index. He attributes this partly to the Trump administration’s supportive stance toward digital assets.
In his view:
It’s the stock market “catching up,” not Bitcoin falling behind.
As of early October, Bitcoin’s performance over the past 12 months has significantly outperformed the S&P 500. What we are seeing now may just be a normal bull market correction, which happens to distort the relative picture.
Whether this divergence will narrow or widen depends on a series of factors, including macroeconomic conditions, liquidity trends, and regulatory policy changes. Let’s keep watching.
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