The Federal Reserve's expectation to keep interest rates unchanged heats up, with BTC, ETH, and XRP collectively under pressure and declining

January 19 News: The cryptocurrency market has weakened significantly at the beginning of this week, primarily due to the greatly reduced likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in the near term. As the market gradually digests the expectation that “January and March may continue to hold steady,” risk asset sentiment has cooled, and mainstream cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP have declined in unison, with volatility notably increasing.

From the perspective of interest rate expectations, federal funds rate futures-related instruments indicate that the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining the benchmark interest rate unchanged in January has risen to about 95%, with the interest rate range expected to remain at 3.50%–3.75%. Meanwhile, market judgments regarding the March meeting have also become more cautious, with the probability of maintaining the current rate level around 75%, and the room for a rate cut in the short term is clearly limited.

This assessment aligns with statements from the U.S. macro policy level. Recently, Trump has publicly called for lower interest rates multiple times, emphasizing that inflation data has eased and that more liquidity should be released into the economy. However, Federal Reserve Chair Powell reiterated a cautious stance in a public speech in Washington, stating that policymakers will “remain patient and wait for more data to confirm the direction,” implying that there is no rush to shift to easing in the short term.

Against this backdrop, the cryptocurrency market has been under pressure first. Over the past 24 hours, the overall crypto market cap has fallen by approximately 2.8%, dropping to around $3.13 trillion. Bitcoin’s latest price is about $92,454, still holding above the key psychological level of $90,000 but significantly below the previous high of nearly $97,600, with a single-day decline of about 2.75%, and a weekly correction also evident.

In terms of Ethereum, ETH is currently priced at about $3,193, down 3.56% for the day. The previous attempt to break above $3,300 was not sustained, indicating that in an environment of tightening interest rate expectations, tolerance for high-valuation assets is decreasing.

XRP’s performance is relatively weaker, with the price falling to around $1.95, a nearly 4.8% decline in a single day, a clear retreat from the high point earlier this month. Although the monthly gain remains positive, the short-term trend has shifted to cautious.

Market feedback indicates that as the expectation of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates remains strong, the space for liquidity improvement has been compressed. Mainstream cryptocurrencies such as BTC, ETH, and XRP are still facing short-term adjustment pressures, and investor sentiment is shifting from offensive to defensive.