Zcash short bets reach up to $15 million: critical support at risk, can the whales rewrite ZEC's trend?

January 29 News, Zcash (ZEC) is standing at an important crossroads. Price momentum is slowing down, technical structures are weakening, and there are clear bearish signals in the derivatives market. Data shows that currently, about $15 million worth of ZEC perpetual contracts are concentrated in the bearish direction, with short positions more than twice the size of long positions, indicating that market expectations for continued downside are intensifying.

From a technical perspective, the daily chart is forming a head and shoulders top pattern, with the neckline around $301. ZEC is still trading below the right shoulder; if it cannot regain the previous high area, the pattern suggests a potential retracement of over 30%. Meanwhile, the price formed lower highs from mid to late January, and the RSI remains around 49, failing to strengthen in tandem, reflecting weakening buying momentum. The market has not entered a healthy consolidation phase.

The derivatives structure further reinforces this judgment. The leverage ratio for long and short liquidations clearly favors shorts, indicating traders are more inclined to position for a decline rather than bet on a rebound. The alignment of structure, momentum, and positions all pointing in the same direction puts short-term pressure on the price.

However, on the spot side, there is an intriguing divergence. Over the past 24 hours, holdings of the top 100 addresses increased by over 4%, indicating some large funds are quietly adding to their positions. In contrast, retail investors’ willingness to hold coins has decreased, on-chain fund flows have slowed significantly, and buying enthusiasm has weakened noticeably. This pattern of “whales entering, retail investors watching” suggests that some players are strategically positioning in key zones ahead of time.

On the price level, $301 is the key level determining the direction. If the daily price breaks below this level, the pattern will be confirmed, and the $288 area below could become the new testing target; conversely, if the price reclaims above $405, the downward pressure will be alleviated. The next move for ZEC will depend on the outcome of the battle between bulls and bears in this zone.