How does the $3 million PEPE sell-off affect the price?

PEPE has been trading within a downtrend channel since being rejected at the $0.00000688 level two weeks ago. The impact of the recent sharp market decline has caused this memecoin to fall to a bottom of $0.0000044. At press time, PEPE is trading around $0.000004541, down 5.56%, extending its weekly decline.

Whales Sell Off $3.88 Million PEPE

As PEPE faces overwhelming selling pressure, a long-term “whale” has returned to the market to dump. After holding approximately 1.7 trillion PEPE since October, this address has sold 858 billion PEPE, equivalent to about $3.88 million.

According to Arkham data, this whale began accumulating PEPE in 2023 and had never sold before. Even after the above transaction, the wallet still holds 842 billion PEPE, worth around $3.82 million.

Source: Arkham Notably, this is not an isolated phenomenon. After the market downturn, outflows from large holder groups increased significantly, indicating a widespread cautious sentiment among “shark/whale” investors.

According to Nansen, the Top Holders group has sold a total of 4.25 trillion PEPE (as of writing), implying a panic-selling signal from large-scale wallets. In the context of a prevailing downtrend, large holder sell-offs often reflect declining confidence and concerns over continued losses. Increased selling pressure also means the market supply is expanding, making prices more vulnerable to downward pressure.

Source: Nansen Regarding trading activity, PEPE’s selling volume slightly decreased to 4.46 trillion on January 30, compared to 6.56 trillion the previous day. During the same period, buying volume recorded 3.79 trillion and 5.72 trillion respectively.

Source: Coinalyze Over the two days, PEPE shows a negative buy-sell spread, reinforcing the view that aggressive selling is occurring quite intensely in the spot market. Therefore, recent whale transactions could continue to increase the risk of price decline and lead to further losses.

Is PEPE at Risk of a Deeper Drop?

In the context of volatile market conditions, selling pressure from whales has made the downward pressure more apparent. Accordingly, PEPE’s Stochastic RSI indicator has crossed downward and dropped to around 13.5, plunging further into oversold territory.

Source: Tradingview Additionally, PEPE is trading below its short- and long-term EMAs (EMA 20, 50, 100, and 200), indicating that the downtrend remains intact. As momentum indicators continue to weaken, this reflects a strong bearish momentum that is likely to persist.

Therefore, if the selling side—especially whale groups—continues to dominate the market, PEPE could fall back to the $0.0000043 level.

Conversely, to trigger a recovery scenario, PEPE needs to close above $0.0000051 on the daily chart. In the short term, the EMA 20 at $0.0000051 is considered the nearest resistance level to overcome.