Has Bitcoin truly bottomed out? Three major indicators all flashing red lights, $63,000 may become the next "life and death line"

February 2 News, since the late January peak, Bitcoin has fallen over 11% and has been oscillating around the $75,000 level. Although the short-term technical target has been reached, on-chain data and derivatives structure indicate that the correction may not be over yet, and market opinions on whether a bottom has been formed are widening.

From a technical perspective, on January 29, Bitcoin broke below the head and shoulders pattern, confirming a bearish reversal, with a downside target around $75,130. By early February, the price nearly precisely hit that zone, triggering chain reactions of liquidations and dragging down the entire cryptocurrency market. However, completing a pattern target does not necessarily mean a trend reversal; the key is whether subsequent buying interest can follow through.

The first warning signal comes from spot demand. After the price declined, the amount of coins transferred out to long-term storage significantly decreased, indicating that investors are not actively bottom-fishing. The second signal comes from large addresses: wallets holding between 10,000 and 100,000 BTC have been continuously reducing their holdings, with about 10,000 BTC flowing out in just a few days, showing that core capital is becoming more cautious. The third signal is that short-term holders’ NUPL remains in negative territory; although close to capitulation, it has not yet reached extreme levels in history, suggesting that market sentiment has not fully cleared.

The structure of the derivatives market is also intriguing. The scale of short leverage is much higher than long leverage. If the price rebounds, it could trigger a short-term “short squeeze,” but such upward movements driven by liquidations lack genuine demand support and are often unsustainable. In other words, volatility is increasing, but stability has not yet returned.

If the $75,000 level is lost, on-chain models show that $69,500 will become the first key buffer zone; further declines to the $66,000–$63,000 range are the most concentrated cost clusters and serve as important mid-term defenses. On the upside, $79,890 and $84,140 constitute major resistance levels. Only with a clear breakthrough can the market structure shift back to a bullish bias. Until then, downside risk remains the main theme.