Bitcoin faces a "life and death test" this week: MSTR earnings report + five major US data releases, potentially setting the tone for the trend

February 2 News, Bitcoin faced pressure during the first full trading week of February, with prices repeatedly oscillating below $80,000. Macroeconomic uncertainties and risk aversion sentiments intertwined, and market focus is now on a series of key US economic data releases and MicroStrategy (MSTR) earnings reports, which could determine Bitcoin’s short-term direction.

First, signals from the US labor market. JOLTS job openings, ADP employment, initial unemployment claims, and Friday’s non-farm payroll report will collectively influence market expectations regarding whether the Federal Reserve will shift to an easing policy in 2026. If the data generally weaken, it will reinforce expectations of rate cuts, increase liquidity imagination space, and typically support Bitcoin; conversely, if employment remains resilient, it may delay policy shifts, keeping risk assets under pressure.

Currently, Bitcoin hovers around $75,000, with ETF fund flows becoming more cautious and sentiment leaning towards defense. Historical experience shows that when employment data unexpectedly weaken, Bitcoin often experiences a sentiment-driven rebound; strong data, on the other hand, is more likely to trigger further corrections.

Beyond macroeconomic data, corporate catalysts are equally important. MicroStrategy will release its Q4 2025 earnings after the market closes on February 5. The company currently holds approximately 712,647 Bitcoins, about 3.4% of the circulating supply, and its financial performance is highly correlated with Bitcoin prices. Market expectations are that it will record significant losses due to fair value impairments. If management adopts a cautious attitude towards capital structure, leverage, or continued accumulation, it could exacerbate market concerns; conversely, reaffirming long-term confidence or signaling continued allocation may boost overall confidence.

Under the multiple influences of rate cut expectations, capital flow dynamics, and corporate holdings, this week may become a crucial turning point for Bitcoin’s trend. Investors are waiting for these “hard data” to provide directional guidance.