Will XRP Drop Further? ABC Elliott Wave Structure Points to Multiple Price Scenarios

Data confirms XRP currently trades within the C wave of an ABC structure, and the nature of the flat would determine if it has bottomed or not.

XRP has remained in a downward trend that recently dragged the token to a low of $1.52 before buyers pushed the price back up to around $1.60. As the market attempts to stabilize, data now suggests XRP may be moving within an ABC corrective structure under Elliott Wave Theory

XRP likely formed Wave A at $1.61 in April 2025 and Wave B at $3.65 in July 2025, placing the market in Wave C today. Depending on whether the correction develops as a running flat, regular flat, or expanded flat, XRP could stabilize near current levels or slide significantly lower.

Key Points

• XRP recently fell to $1.52 before rebounding to around $1.60 as market data suggests it may be trading within an ABC structure.
• The ABC structure places Wave A at $1.61 in April 2025 and Wave B at $3.65 in July 2025 on the weekly chart.
• XRP currently trades in Wave C, and the bottom of this wave would depend on the nature of the ABC structure.
• A running flat suggests XRP could hold above roughly $1.61, with support near $1.70 to $1.62.
• A regular flat points to a dip toward about $1.55 to $1.51.
• An expanded flat opens downside risk toward roughly $1.06 or even near $0.34.

XRP ABC Structure Indecisive

The analyst explained that traders’ outlook depends on whether the market already formed a bottom, is approaching one, or still needs another major drop. He highlighted three possible flat scenarios: running flat, regular flat, and expanded flat. Notably, each of these produces different outcomes

To him, the expanded flat setup appears most reasonable because Wave B moved beyond the starting point of Wave A while only printing slightly higher highs rather than surging sharply or forming a double top.

XRP Weekly Chart Levels

If XRP truly follows this ABC structure, the formation likely developed on the weekly timeframe. In this chart, XRP reached its Wave A bottom when the price dropped to $1.61 in April 2025. The market then staged a strong rally that sent XRP to a Wave B peak of $3.65 in July 2025.

With XRP now trading close to $1.60, the asset appears to be moving through Wave C. According to the commentary from Charting Guy, the type of flat correction now in play will determine whether XRP already touched its low or still faces sharper declines ahead.

XRP 1W ABC StructureIn all flat corrective patterns, Wave C typically begins at the end of Wave B, around $3.66, and extends downward. The depth of that move changes depending on whether the structure forms as a running flat, regular flat, or expanded flat.

Running Flat Scenario Suggests Limited Downside

In a running flat pattern, Wave B moves beyond the start of Wave A while Wave C fails to drop below the Wave A low. With this scenario, XRP would not break beneath the $1.61 level.

The guide places Wave C at roughly the same length as Wave A, which mathematically points again to around $1.61. However, in true running flats, prices usually hold above that area, creating a likely support range between approximately $1.70 and $1.62. This outcome would imply XRP may already sit near its bottom.

Regular Flat Points to a Slight Break Below Support

Meanwhile, in a regular flat structure, Wave B typically retraces nearly all of Wave A’s decline, while Wave C often extends slightly past the Wave A bottom. Analysts typically project Wave C at 100% to 105% of Wave A’s size.

With these levels, a full 100% move would again target roughly $1.61, while a 105% extension would pull XRP down to about $1.51. This places the expected regular flat support zone between roughly $1.55 and $1.61.

Expanded Flat Leads to Much Deeper Declines

However, in an expanded or extended flat pattern, Wave B pushes well beyond the start of Wave A, while Wave C commonly stretches far below the previous low using Fibonacci extensions.

When one applies a 1.27 extension of Wave A, the downside target appears at $1.06. A larger 1.618 extension would lead to a drop toward $0.34. In this situation, XRP could fall anywhere from around $1.50 down to near $0.30, depending on how aggressively the correction unfolds.

Important Caveat

Running flats tend to appear less often on larger timeframes, which makes analysts cautious about assuming XRP has already found its bottom. All of these projections remain valid only as long as the ABC structure holds. However, market changes can always invalidate wave counts.