Bitunix Analyst: Political signals replace data gaps, risk assets enter a wait-and-see pricing phase

BlockBeats News, February 6 — Against the backdrop of delayed release of key economic data and temporarily losing focus on policy guidance, market sensitivity to political events has significantly increased. On the eve of the Japanese general election, Trump publicly and prominently endorsed Sanae Takaichi, breaking the U.S. president’s usual practice of avoiding involvement in allied elections. This has led to political uncertainty being priced in as a risk factor in advance, with capital tending to preemptively reduce exposure.

The impact of this event is not limited to Japan’s electoral prospects but also symbolizes the risk of policy continuity. The direct intervention of a former U.S. president in the internal affairs of a key ally with personal influence prompts the market to reassess future U.S.-Japan relations, trade and tariff policies, and the stability of the Indo-Pacific strategy. In the absence of non-farm payroll data, political signals have become one of the few short-term directional variables that can be interpreted.

On a cross-market level, the combination of election and geopolitical risks has prompted some funds to shift to conservative positions before the weekend. Risk appetite for yen-related assets and high-volatility arbitrage trades has declined, reflecting that the market is not yet ready to re-extend risk.

Cryptocurrency markets at this stage are more like a reflection of overall risk sentiment. BTC has retreated to near the weekly demand zone, with the current price around $66,000. The key structural support below is in the range of $62,000–$60,000; to the upside, it needs to break back above $71,000–$73,000 for the market to improve its risk appetite. Until political uncertainty is digested, prices will mainly consolidate and rebalance after deleveraging.