WSJ: The likelihood of a successful ceasefire between the US and Iran remains low; the 15-point plan was rejected, and Iran refuses to relinquish nuclear weapons and missiles.

The Wall Street Journal quoted intermediaries saying that Iran has never actively requested a pause in attacks on its energy facilities, contrasting sharply with Trump’s public claim that the suspension was “at Iran’s request.” Whether a ceasefire can be achieved remains a key factor influencing short-term risk asset movements.
(Background: Trump stated that Iran’s navy and air force have been completely destroyed, “losing mine-laying capabilities,” and the impact on stocks and oil prices has been less severe than expected.)
(Additional context: JPMorgan Chase reports that gold liquidity has fallen below Bitcoin’s, with BTC stabilizing counter to geopolitical crises.)

Table of Contents

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• 15-Point Plan Rejected: Iran Refuses Nuclear and Missile Concessions
• Oil Tankers Through Hormuz: Trump Calls It a “Gift”
• Ceasefire Progress Influences BTC

The announcement of a Middle East ceasefire and the ongoing reality continue to leave the world in uncertainty: Recently, Trump claimed that, based on Iran’s proactive request, the U.S. decided to pause attacks on Iran’s energy sector for 10 days to facilitate peace negotiations.

However, the Wall Street Journal cited multiple intermediaries involved in negotiations, stating that Iran has never made such a request and has not yet responded to the U.S. proposed 15-point ceasefire plan, complicating external assessments of the negotiation outlook.

Intermediaries revealed that Iranian officials have expressed willingness to engage in talks, but final decisions are still pending approval from the highest leadership. Currently, there is no indication that Tehran is actively seeking a ceasefire window.

15-Point Plan Rejected: Iran Refuses Nuclear and Missile Concessions

The U.S. proposed a 15-point plan centered on lifting severe economic sanctions in exchange for Iran making concessions on several contentious issues, including its nuclear program, missile development, and support for regional armed groups.

Iran’s response has been firm. Intermediaries say Tehran has demanded the U.S. reduce what they see as “excessive” conditions in the plan; otherwise, they will not agree to formal negotiations. Specifically, Iran refuses to make missile program negotiations a starting point and is unwilling to commit to a permanent halt to uranium enrichment.

Negotiators openly state that, given both sides have presented mutually unacceptable conditions, the chances of a successful ceasefire remain low.

Oil Tankers Through Hormuz: Trump Calls It a “Gift”

Amid ongoing military and diplomatic tensions, Iran recently allowed several oil tankers flying Pakistani flags to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Trump interpreted this as a “gift” from Iran’s leadership, suggesting Tehran is signaling a willingness to advance negotiations.

However, from the perspective of intermediaries, this symbolic gesture has not translated into substantive breakthroughs, and the deadlock over core conditions persists.

Ceasefire Progress Influences BTC

For the crypto market, every twist in US-Iran relations impacts risk sentiment. News of Iran’s willingness to negotiate temporarily boosted Bitcoin by over 5%, pushing it above $71,000. Conversely, if fears of negotiation breakdown grow, oil prices may decline, and risk assets could sell off.

This situation will also test whether Bitcoin truly functions as a safe-haven asset.

Meanwhile, the OECD warns that if Middle Eastern conflict persists, U.S. inflation could surge to 4.2%, and the Federal Reserve may be forced to delay interest rate cuts.