"Bitcoin" cool cool"? Will it fall below $90,000?!"

The quality of decision-making depends on the information you have and your ability to process it. - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates - Principles

This week, the price of Bitcoin fell below $100,000, and I believe that this decline is a healthy and effective correction, which is a common phenomenon in bull markets. In previous cycles, the cryptocurrency market frequently experienced significant corrections, which help to digest the risks of excessive speculation and lay the foundation for future rises.

The structure of the Bitcoin price trend is still intact, with no substantial changes, and still above the trend line, so the previous view is still maintained!

Short-term holders realized price (STH-RP) - The actual cost base of short-term holders has risen to around $85,357, providing some support for the market. Short-term holders typically profit-taking when prices rise, which may lead to selling pressure, but as more institutional investors enter, market behavior may change. ----During a bull market, traders like to buy when the price of Bitcoin reaches the actual cost basis of short-term holders, as this is a good time to increase positions.

Long-term Bitcoin holders typically expect to make at least ten times their investment before selling a large amount of Bitcoin to the market. In contrast, short-term holders lack this patience and usually choose to take profits after achieving a 20% to 40% return.

Since reaching a peak several weeks ago, the US stock market has fallen by more than 4%, which is considered a minor sell-off. This pullback can be seen as a “healthy correction,” as the index has successfully tested the 50-day moving average, although it briefly fell below it and is currently in a rebound state. At the same time, the width of the 50-day moving average has dropped to oversold levels, indicating a normal market adjustment.

The dollar index hit a new high for the year, and the strength of the dollar will have a negative impact on global net liquidity, thus suppressing risk assets. At the beginning of 2022, the stock market was under pressure when the dollar strengthened, while during the bull market in 2023, the dollar weakened. Entering 2024, the dollar and risk assets still show a positive correlation, but this week the dollar reached its highest level since 2022, leading to a market crash.

In addition, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has approved the first Bitcoin-Ethereum mixed spot ETF, expected to be launched in January 2025. This marks an important milestone for the entry of crypto assets into the mainstream investment arena. With the upcoming Trump administration, the market’s regulatory policies on cryptocurrencies may become more friendly. It is expected that more bullish policies will be introduced, possibly bringing new growth opportunities to the market. However, we should also be cautious and pay attention to the potential impact of future changes in the Fed’s interest rate strategy and the macro environment (global political environment and inflation employment environment) on the crypto market.

Note: All content represents the author’s personal views only and should not be construed as investment advice or interpreted in any way as tax, accounting, legal, business, financial, or regulatory advice. Before making any investment decisions, you should seek independent legal and financial advice, including advice on tax consequences.

#加密市场盘整 # Opportunities after market adjustment? #比特币战略储备 # Bitcoin market volatility observation