From 14:30 to 14:45 (UTC) on 2026-04-17, the Bitcoin (BTC) market saw clear signs of abnormal movement. The 15-minute candlestick return reached +0.69%, with the price ranging from 77455.4 to 78044.4 USDT and an amplitude of 0.76%. Short-term fluctuations increased market attention, trading volume expanded in parallel, and liquidity improved further. The main driver behind this abnormal move was a clear strengthening of spot-market buy-side demand. According to on-chain and statistical data, from 14:00 to 15:00, BTC spot buys had the upper hand. Massive buy orders continued to push the price higher, while whale addresses (≥10,000 BTC holdings) were actively net-buying during this period. The inflow of large on-chain funds directly drove spot prices higher. In addition, CME Bitcoin futures open interest increased by 70%, yet there was no large-scale liquidation or forced selling, indicating that institutional capital was returning in an orderly manner and that futures leverage did not become the dominant source of pressure. The leading force behind this upswing came from the spot market, and any wait-and-see sentiment caused by shrinking ETF flows did not suppress short-term prices. Meanwhile, on-chain data shows that network activity has continued to rise, and the distribution of holdings is becoming more concentrated. In the short term, the coordinated effect of whales and newly onboarded users amplified price elasticity. Benefiting from an increase in macro risk appetite in mid-April—along with dovish signals from the Bank of Japan coinciding with easing geopolitical tensions—BTC’s attractiveness as a risk asset improved, and investors’ risk appetite strengthened. In addition, although ETF net inflows fell to $4.2 million, there were no large outflows, providing bottom support for spot. Multiple factors converged to drive BTC’s short-term rebound within the 15-minute window. It is worth noting that the SOPR data for short-term holders shows that some short-term capital is currently trading at a loss; if the price pulls back, there may be a risk of additional downside. Changes in institutional capital driven by shrinking ETF flows are also a potential trigger for volatility. The return of leveraged funds to the futures market is also worth watching. Investors should closely monitor key support levels, the movements of actively circulating on-chain funds, and changes in macro news, so they can grasp the market’s timing and stay up to date with more real-time market information.

From 15:00 to 15:15 (UTC) on 2026-04-16, BTC logged a +0.46% return within 15 minutes. The price fluctuated in a range of 73,939.7 to 74,440.0 USDT, with an amplitude of 0.68%. During this time window, market attention increased, short-term volatility intensified, and fund-flow characteristics changed noticeably. The main driver of this deviation is the continued outflow of large amounts of capital from exchanges. According to on-chain data, in the past 24 hours the net flow was -14,408.84 BTC, mainly concentrated in large transfer ranges of more than $1 million (especially>$10M net outflow -12,987.03 BTC). This shows that institutions and large holders actively reduced their BTC holdings on exchanges, and short-term selling pressure was significantly lowered. Against the backdrop of persistently weak liquidity, with order book depth remaining at a low level for a long time, the price has become more sensitive to medium-sized buy orders—amplifying the impact of even modest inflows on spot market price action. In addition, macro conditions changed in parallel and produced a synchronized effect: easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East boosted overall market sentiment. International gold prices rose, global equity markets hit new highs, and the market re-evaluated the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates within the year, further increasing investor attention to safe-haven assets (including BTC). At the same time, on-chain data indicates that the “whale” trading activity during this phase is at an annual low (>$1M transfers fell to 1,485 transactions). With heavy market wait-and-see sentiment and limited short-term supply, BTC’s responsiveness to sudden buy-side capital was further enhanced. Investors should be reminded that current market liquidity is still fragile. Insufficient order book depth increases the market’s sensitivity to large capital movements, and short-term volatility may intensify. Going forward, focus on further shifts in on-chain large-fund flows, changes in price action as it breaks through support or resistance regions, and the risks and opportunities brought by related macro policies and geopolitical developments. Please continue to track key data and stay alert to any sudden shocks during the period of abnormal moves.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent advised the Federal Reserve to observe before cutting rates, expressing confidence in declining core inflation. He mentioned the implementation of a 10% tariff under Section 122, with uncertainty about a potential increase to 15%.

DWF Labs co-founder Andrei Grachev said the market is currently in a “very boring” phase, with genuinely valuable activity taking place quietly. He advised investors to stay patient, wait for better timing, and noted that retail investors should respond rationally to market volatility—continue learning and staying engaged.

An S&P Global Market Intelligence report shows that although the stablecoin market has already surpassed $316B, the banking industry’s strategic positioning for stablecoins is still in an early stage, with only 7% of surveyed banks developing relevant frameworks. Banks are concerned about issues such as deposit outflows and impacts on revenue, and it is expected that large banks will explore tokenized deposits, while mid-sized and smaller banks will use fiat deposits to participate.

April 2, 2026, the total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market fell 2.6%. Bitcoin dropped to $66,250, Ethereum is nearing $2,000, and major assets generally pulled back. Due to Trump making tough remarks about the Iran situation, risk-off sentiment intensified in the market, and funds are taking a wait-and-see stance in the short term. High interest rates and geopolitical risk together are weighing on prices; going forward, attention will be on developments in the Middle East and changes in macro liquidity.

Latin American e-commerce giant Mercado Libre announced that it will shut down its in-house cryptocurrency, Mercado Coin, starting on April 17. Users will be able to sell the token, use it to offset purchases, or wait for it to be exchanged for fiat currency. The token launched in 2022 and was intended to serve as shopping rewards. The company has not explained the reason for the shutdown.

2026-03-31 08:30 to 08:45 (UTC), ETH’s short-term return recorded -0.66%, with the price range between 2039.73 and 2054.49 USDT, and the amplitude reaching 0.72%. During this period, market volatility intensified, with a clear increase in trading attention, reflecting investors’ rapid reaction to risk events and a rise in safe-haven sentiment. The main drivers behind this unusual move were a significant drop in the number of active addresses on-chain (down about 14.49% from the previous day to 490,239), which weakened network liquidity and reduced the market’s ability to absorb demand. Meanwhile, trading volumes also declined, indicating a cautious market sentiment and a wait-and-see attitude among investors.

HTX Research analysts point out that the impact of macro variables on the cryptocurrency market has shifted to a triple pressure of high interest rates, energy shocks, and liquidity contraction, leading to market valuations being under pressure. In the short term, cryptocurrency assets are influenced by U.S. dollar liquidity, with most altcoins entering a valuation repricing cycle, and the strategy is to wait for clear macro directional opportunities.

Recently, the movement of institutional funds has turned, with a net outflow of $171 million from U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs on March 27, marking the largest capital withdrawal in three weeks. Analysts believe that the fund pullback reflects a reassessment of market risks by institutions, which may be entering a wait-and-see phase, increasing uncertainty around short-term Bitcoin price support levels.