We've discussed before that the two main forces driving BTC higher in this market cycle are MSTR and spot ETFs. They continuously bring in new buying interest and are an important foundation for price stability.

But things have changed a bit. On December 9th, MSTR announced again that it bought 10,624 BTC. Sounds good, but looking closely at the frequency and scale, compared to the crazy scenes from Q3 2024 to early this year, it's clearly slowed down. As for ETFs? Even quieter.

What does this reflect? Quite straightforward—traditional capital's enthusiasm for BTC is cooling down. The macro environment has changed, and everyone's risk appetite has decreased accordingly.

However, there's an easily overlooked key factor: the basis is converging.

Money flowing into ETFs can actually be split into two waves. One is purely directional capital that is bullish—simply swapping direct holdings for ETF purchases. The other is smart money engaging in arbitrage—buying spot ETFs while hedging with futures shorts to profit from the basis spread.

When market risk appetite declines, the first wave of money naturally withdraws. And when the basis narrows and arbitrage yields decrease, the second wave of money also exits.

Looking at the basis data makes this clear. For example, the annualized rolling basis of a major exchange's 3-month futures peaked at 25% (30-day moving average) in March 2024; by December last year, it rebounded to about 15%; and now? Only 4.7%.

In a typical bull market, such high basis yields could be sustained for a long time...