The probability of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates on the industry prediction platform has already soared to 98%, which looks very certain. But the question is—has the market truly digested this?

What we are seeing is real liquidity contraction. It's like being verbally threatened to freeze accounts versus actually having the accounts frozen; the nature is completely different. One is a bluff, the other is real action. The expectation of rate hikes has long been priced in by the market, but the tide of liquidity withdrawal is real—there's often a gap between these two, which becomes the meat grinder for long positions to be liquidated.

After this wave of market movement, what we need to see clearly is: whether the expected price is good or not is not just a matter of numbers; liquidity is the key factor that determines depth.