Recently, two pieces of information have been causing concern in the market. One is the technical performance of Ethereum, and the other is a potentially major event that could shake up the global financial markets. If you are holding ETH, today's analysis is definitely worth a read.

First, let's talk about the news side. Financial data shows that the probability of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates this Friday is as high as 96%, with a 25 basis point increase. It's almost a certainty.

This may seem like just a move by the Bank of Japan, but don't think that way. Global capital markets are interconnected like a big web; any problem in one part can affect others. What does a rate hike in Japan mean? Essentially, liquidity is tightening. Once this third-largest economy in the world starts to tighten its purse strings, cheaper funds in the market become scarcer, and borrowing costs rise accordingly. High-risk assets are the first to be sold off, and the volatile crypto space often leads the way. When large investors sense risk, they become very cautious or withdraw early.

Now, let's look at the technical side. On the one-hour chart, Ethereum appears to be rising, and the surface looks promising. But seasoned traders know to dig deeper into the fundamentals. The real truth lies in the MACD indicator below—the white and yellow lines are both below the zero line and have formed a death cross. What does this mean? It indicates that this recent upward move is just a rebound within a downtrend, lacking momentum, and is a weak bounce.

Above, the 3150 level feels like a heavy stone pressing down, repeatedly unable to be broken through. The 3000 level below is a psychological support line that must be defended. If it breaks below 3000, there is support at 2890, but that support becomes less reliable.

So, what should current holders do?

If you have already built a position or are heavily invested: consider the 3150 to 3180 range as the best opportunity to reduce your holdings or exit entirely. Don't get caught up in the hope of further gains; locking in profits is the real priority. As for stop-losses, absolutely do not let it fall below 3000—that's the bottom line.

If you haven't entered the market yet, you should wait and see. This is not a good entry point; instead, observe how the rate hike news is truly reflected and whether ETH can hold its key support levels.