#大户持仓变化 $BTC $ETH $ZEC This recent market trend has been truly frustrating. Bitcoin has fallen below a key support level, prompting many to ask: Have we reached the bottom?

From a technical perspective, the signals are already clear—after the 60-week moving average was breached, the market has clearly entered a technical bear market phase. The MACD momentum continues to decline, and there is divergence between price and volume. These characteristics are consistent with the early stages of past bear markets. Coupled with the psychological expectation of the "four-year cycle" constantly fermenting, retail panic has intensified, and institutions are also pushing prices down to capitalize on the trend, creating a self-reinforcing downward outlook.

As for operational advice: don’t rush to buy the dip. Instead of blindly catching falling knives, consider shorting on rebounds with small positions—but be careful not to chase the short—this easily results in missed opportunities. If you really want to go long, wait until Bitcoin drops below the previous low of $80,000 before considering it. For Ethereum, look around $2,600 as a reference.

An interesting phenomenon is that altcoins have recently been relatively resistant to decline, indicating that funds have not completely exited the market. Hot sectors like AI and RWA are worth paying attention to.

Ultimately, in a bear market, there’s no clear bottom to be seen. Without sufficient emotional release, it’s hard to form genuine bottom signals. So instead of rushing, it’s better to stay patient and deploy in batches—that’s the way to survive in a bear market.