#大户持仓变化 December 16 evening market analysis: Trading opportunities amid bullish and bearish tug-of-war

Tonight, the crypto market enters a multi-cycle divergence pattern, with technical indicators showing interesting contrasts—let’s get straight to the essentials, skipping the fluff!

From the 4-hour chart perspective, the Bollinger Bands are gradually narrowing. Although the bearish trend has not fully reversed, its momentum is clearly weakening. The MACD indicator has turned around, and the shrinking of the bearish momentum bars indicates that the short-term downward force is gradually diminishing, likely entering a consolidation phase to form a bottom. The KDJ curve remains downward, with no clear turning point yet—meaning it’s not the time to take high risks.

The 1-hour chart style is completely opposite. While the Bollinger Bands have not reversed, the MACD has already turned upward, with bullish momentum bars continuing to grow, signaling a clear rebound. The KDJ curve is also turning up, indicating short-term bullish energy is building—this rebound wave is worth paying attention to.

Trading strategy reference

Mainstream coins: Short positions within the 87,300-87,800 range, with the first target at 86,200. If the price breaks below, continue to watch for a drop to 85,200. Set stop-loss above 88,200 to prevent false breakouts and trap losses.

Secondary opportunities: Establish short positions in the 2,970-3,000 range, with initial targets at 2,920, and if broken, then look for 2,890. Stop-loss at 3,030, strictly controlling individual risk.

The current situation is summarized as a tug-of-war between a "large-cycle bearish trend vs. small-cycle rebound and correction." In the short term, you can follow the 1-hour signals to participate in rebounds, but medium-term operations should still align with the downward trend on the 4-hour chart.

Key reminder: Don’t chase after a big gamble; every trade must have a clear take-profit and stop-loss plan. Only then can you survive longer amid market volatility.